Diamondbacks Opening Day Roster Projection
Starting Rotation: RHP Zac Gallen, RHP Merrill Kelly, RHP Zach Davies, LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Ryne Nelson
Going into camp, the D-backs already had their top four rotation spots accounted for. Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, and Brandon Pfaadt all competed for the final spot in the rotation. With their performances last season, Jameson and Nelson were at the top of the pecking order in this competition.
With just a week to go before the season starts, only Nelson and Jameson remained in the competition. Both pitchers posted similar numbers in 2022, so it was a close race entering the year.
Ultimately, I chose Nelson over Jameson for two reasons:
- Nelson had better xStats than Jameson, with his xERA (2.24) being 2 runs better
- When stretching out to 65-70 pitches, Nelson had a better performance against the Rockies on May 17th.
Both pitchers didn't have much of a sample size in the big leagues, with Nelson and Jameson throwing 18.1 and 24.1 innings respectively. Nelson saw better batted ball data and more swing-and-miss potential between a mid 90s fastball that plays up due to getting 6.7 feet of extension, which ranks in the 78th percentile on Statcast. Earlier in camp, Nelson was having trouble commanding his breaking balls, but found it against the Rockies on March 17th.
Jameson got hit around in his last Cactus League outing against the Rockies on the 12th. Despite touching 100 MPH in the start, Jameson gave up two home runs and four runs overall and pulled from two separate innings.
They each have one more Cactus League start, both coming tomorrow in split squad games. Jameson pitches at home vs. the Dodgers and Nelson pitches in Mesa, Sloan Park against the Cubs. If the club has not already decided, then tomorrow is a big day for both of them.
Bullpen: RHP Miguel Castro, RHP Scott McGough, LHP Andrew Chafin, LHP Joe Mantiply, LHP Kyle Nelson, RHP Kevin Ginkel, RHP Jeurys Familia, RHP Cole Sulser
The injuries to Mark Melancon and Corbin Martin wound up opening up this competition a bit more than expected. A week ago, I would have said the last three relievers to make the Opening Day bullpen were going to be Nelson, Ginkel, and Martin. Instead the open two spots will go to Familia, who has pitched to a 1.50 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP in seven games, and Sulser, who has 6.1 scoreless innings in six games.
Castro and McGough would project to get the most high leverage innings as part of Arizona's new bullpen approach, given their combination of stuff and command. Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and Jeurys Familia will likely handle medium leverage save situations and setup innings. Chafin and Nelson would be matchup lefties, in to get tough left-handed hitters out.
Luis Frías and Carlos Vargas are probably the last cuts, despite a solid showing from both of them. Frías allowed two runs on 10 hits, two walks, and 11 strikeouts in 7.1 innings. Vargas allowed two runs on 8 hits, three walks, and 10 strikeouts in 8.1 innings. Both pitchers had a considerable effort to make the Opening Day roster and could see some big innings out of the bullpen later in the season.
Catchers: Gabriel Moreno, Jose Herrera
Carson Kelly's injury drastically alters the team's plans at the catcher position. What was originally going to be a combination of Kelly and Moreno, but now the team will start Moreno and figure out the backup role on the fly. Due to his familiarity with most of the pitching staff and already being on the 40-man roster, Herrera makes the most sense to open the season despite his 1-for-26 start this spring. I expect the backup role to be a very fluid situation while Kelly is out.
P.J. Higgins made things interesting, hitting .333 with four doubles and two home runs this spring. He also has the versatility to play first base in a pinch, which may or may not make any impact on their roster moves in the outfield. Higgins is an offense-first catcher, although is only a .210/.291/.348 hitter in 254 career plate appearances.
Infielders: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Josh Rojas, Evan Longoria, Geraldo Perdomo
There wasn't much wiggle room in the infield after the D-backs signed Evan Longoria this off-season. Walker and Marte you can pencil in for at least 130 starts at first and second base. Marte has been challenged to stay healthy the last two season, but showed up for camp leaner and with more flexibility. Walker played in 158 games last year, but the season missed significant time due to an oblique injury. Third base will be close to a strict platoon from the left-handed hitting Rojas and the right-handed hitting Longoria. The shortstop position will be interesting in how they divvy out playing time between the aging Ahmed and the youngster Perdomo.
The D-backs will also need to allocate a total of 30-40 starts at the designated hitter spot between Walker, Marte, Longoria, and Rojas in order to keep them fresh throughout the season. Perdomo will likely shift into a utility infielder role, primarily at the two middle infield positions, with Ahmed and Marte having pretty significant injury histories in the past two seasons. Rojas is expecting to get reps at second base as well.
Outfielders: Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Pavin Smith
Carroll, McCarthy, and Gurriel were locks entering camp, with Thomas getting the inside track to a prominent role in the outfield. That left the final spot down to a competition between Pavin Smith and Kyle Lewis. Despite the strong showing at the plate for Lewis, he is facing an uphill battle to make the roster due to a lack of defensive versatility. That means Smith will likely make the roster, as a backup at first base, starts at DH, and the occasional game at a corner outfield spot.
