D-backs Offense Still Trying to Figure Out Phillies Pitching
The Diamondbacks offense has mostly struggled against the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff in the NLCS. As a team they're batting .207/.272/.305, .577 OPS, and scored just 12 runs in five games, or 2.4 per game. The Phillies have scored 27 runs and out homered the D-backs 10-3 in the series
The first three starting pitchers for the Phillies have been especially tough on Arizona. Zack Wheeler gave up just three runs in 13 innings in his two starts. He threw five scoreless in game one before giving up two runs in the 6th when he had a 5-0 lead. In game five he threw six scoreless before giving up a run in the 7th while pitching with a 4-0 lead.
Aaron Nola, who the D-backs will face tonight, threw six innings of three hit scoreless baseball in game two. It was still a 2-0 game before the Phillies broke it open in the bottom of the 6th on their way to a 10-0 rout.
Ranger Suarez matched Brandon Pfaadt in game three, throwing 5.1 scoreless innings. The D-backs scratched out a run in the 7th after he left the game and got the game winner in the ninth on a walk-off hit against Craig Kimbrel.
Six of the 12 D-backs runs in this series came in game four. They got out to an early 2-0 lead against Christopher Sanchez, knocking him out of the game in the third. Gregory Soto and Orion Kerkering gifted the D-backs a run in the 7th due to three walks, and then Alek Thomas came off the bench to deliver a dramatic two-run homer off Kimbrel to tie it up ahead Gabriel Moreno's game winning RBI.
Individually, only Ketel Marte has hit consistently in the series, batting .429 while maintaining his personal 14 game postseason hitting streak, the second longest to begin a career in MLB history. As detailed by Michael McDermott yesterday, Corbin Carroll is just 2-for-19, although he has hit a few balls hard and could easily have had a better line. Both of Alek Thomas' hits in the series are homers, but overall he's just 2-for-11.
The main issue however has been the veteran hitters outside of Marte getting largely shut down. The most notable among these are Christian Walker but between him, Tommy Pham, Evan Longoria, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, they're just 8-61, .138 combined.
Diamondbacks hitters in the NLCS through game five
I asked Torey Lovullo last night if the lack of offense was due mostly to the Phillies pitchers executing their game plans or the hitters not executing theirs. He made a point to credit the Philadelphia pitchers.
"I want to give credit where credit is due. The Philly pitchers, especially their one, two, and then back to their one, have been really, really effective against us. It's a mixture of pitches. It's keeping us off balance. It's a good pitching plan, attacking zones that might be certain limitations for certain hitters. So that's A."
With giving due credit out of the way, Lovullo went on to place most of the responsibility on his hitters for chasing pitches they shouldn't be. They're clearly pressing.
"I hold every one of us accountable -- I think we're just making some poor swing decisions. I think we're chasing certain counts.....we see the pitch, and it might be a ball or two off of where we're looking at it, and I think we have that mentality that we're just trying to do everything on every pitch......I'm hoping that things click in the way that we've seen it over the first couple of series, but I want to put it on us.
Asked specifically about Walker, who is critical to any chance the D-backs might have to extend this series, Lovullo spoke again about the need to be selective and shrink the zone. Walker had a double in game five and has barreled up a couple of balls lately. He maybe be getting close. But he too needs to shrink the zone.
"Christian is getting pitched to a little bit at that top bar, top of the zone. He just has to lower his sights a little bit and look for the pitch in the area that he can handle or drive out of the ballpark......He is just a quality hitter, and I know he feels like he can hit any pitch out of the ballpark at any time. But I think he is just fighting too many pitches throughout the whole zone. He just has to shrink it up a little bit, and he'll be just fine."
Another aspect of the Diamondbacks offense that has been totally lacking is the running game. The D-backs have attempted just one steal in the series, that by Gurriel. Lovullo explained that the Phillies pitchers have done a great job reducing their times to the plate to 1.30-1.35 seconds. That combined with J.T. Realmuto's 1.83 average pop time adds up to a "no go" situation for would be base stealers. It's this kind of math equation that led to the D-backs having the second best stolen base percentage in the league at 86%.
Lovullo brought up an interesting counter point however. By forcing the Phillies pitchers to be quicker to the plate, it should create some more opportunity for the hitters, especially with power pitchers. So far that hasn't helped the hitters however.
"If they're hurrying and hustling in their delivery to get the ball to the plate or their catcher to control the running game that that is some noise that we feel like we should be able to take advantage of. Unfortunately, up to this point, we have not, so we have to be better at home plate when there's some quality runners at first base that are causing this pitcher to get the ball to home plate a little bit quicker."
The Diamondbacks had success in the regular season against Nola in 2022 and 2023, and it's certainly not impossible they could do so again tonight. They'll need to be stubborn to the game plan and not chase however. That's far easier said than done when facing elimination in front of 45,000 rabid fans.
