Diamondbacks 2022 Season Player Reviews: Mark Melancon
Status: First year of 2 year contract: $6,000,000
Mark Melancon 2022 and Career Stats
Career and 2022 Season Review
University of Arizona alumni Mark Melancon was drafted by the Yankees all the way back in 2006. After making his MLB debut in 2009, he was traded to the Astros mid season in 2010 and then to the Red Sox for the 2012 season. He was a middling reliever with a 10-7 record and a 4.07 ERA.
Traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for the 2013 season, Melancon enjoyed a massive breakout. Ditching his other pitches and going exclusively with his 92 MPH cutter and a sharp curveball he posted a 1.39 ERA and took over the closer role by mid season, notching 16 saves. From 2014-2016 he had a 1.93 ERA and recorded the most saves of any pitcher in the game, with 131. He blew just 10 chances over those three years, for an astounding 93% save rate. Traded at the deadline to the Nationals in 2016 he didn't skip a beat, saving 17 of 18 games.
That run of success earned him a four year, $62 million dollar contract in free agency with the San Francisco Giants. That did not work out. He spent 56 days on the IL in 2017 with foot and elbow injuries, appearing in just 32 games, posting a 4.50 ERA and saving just 11 games while blowing 5. He missed the first two months of 2018 with an arm injury as well, When he returned he was no longer the closer. By mid season 2019 the Giants were ready to move on, trading him to the Atlanta Braves.
He regained his mojo with the Braves however, helping them down the stretch by saving 11 of 12, and then saved 11 of 13 for them in the Pandemic shortened 2020 season. He posted a 3.30 ERA for the Braves in 46 games over that span. Signed by the Padres for just $2 million for the 2021 season with a mutual option, Melancon bounced all the way back to lead the league in saves with 39 and posting 2.23 ERA. Declining his half of the option he then signed a two year deal with the Diamondbacks for $12 million plus an option for 2024.
The optimism was high at the time of the signing. The Diamondbacks bullpen was awful in 2021 and they needed stability. A proven closer was just what the Diamondbacks needed to stabilize the bullpen, and most fans and pundits lauded Mike Hazen for making this move.
Things went south almost immediately. He allowed a run in his first outing on April 9th while getting in some 9th inning work in a game the team was already losing. In his next outing he entered the game in a 1-1 tie in the top of the 9th giving up the go ahead run to take the loss. He settled down to get the save in his next two opportunities. But on April 22nd against the Mets he induced three straight ground balls in a 10th inning tie, the third of which got through for a base hit scoring the "ghost runner". Melancon took the loss when the D-backs could not answer back it he bottom of the 10th.
He blew a save on May 7th against the Rockies, failing to protect a 1-0 lead, coughing up four runs in the process. On May 11th he entered a tie game against the Marlins and gave up the first four runs in a disastrous eight run 9th inning. On May 14th it happened again, when he gave up two runs in a tie game taking the loss to the Cubs. Through that point in the season Melancon had 7 saves and just one blown, but he had five losses. The die seemed cast early on. Every time he entered a tie game he pitched poorly and took the loss, but he seemed to get most of his save opportunities. In a very tough post game interview after that loss to the Cubs an obviously emotional but fully accountable Melancon stood at his locker and wore it.
Unfortunately this pattern repeated itself for the rest of the season. Of his ten losses, three of them came in the only three saves he blew. Seven of his 10 losses came when he entered a tie game. Despite success in 18 of his 21 save opportunities, the failure in tie games led to his manager losing faith in him. By mid August the team had gone to a closer by committee, and Malancon got just one more save opportunity, which he converted, in late September.
The two biggest issues for Melancon were the cratering of his strikeout rate and his ground ball rate, and subsequently his double play rate. From 2019 to 2021 his strikeout ratio was 8.2 per nine innings, right in line with his career average. But in 2022 that dropped all the way just 5.6/K9. Melancon came into 2022 with a hefty 56% ground ball rate, but that dropped all the way to 44% this season. Without the ability to get swing and miss, or induce enough ground ball double plays to get out of jams, it all just backed up on him.
His velocity was down 1 MPH from the previous season, but that doesn't explain the lack of effectiveness. After looking closely at all of his velocity, movement, and spin rates, the thing that jumped out at me as the main culprit was simply location. You can see this especially with the curveball. 2021 is on the left, 2022 is on the right.
Mark Melancon curveball location 2021 vs 2022
In 2021 Melancon was able to locate his curveball just below the zone most of the time, inducing swing and miss and weak contact, (.182 BA and .202 slugging). But in 2022 he left his curveballs up much of the time and he got hit, allowing a .273 BA and .348 slug.
2023 Outlook: 2nd year of two year deal, $6,000,000
General manager Mike Hazen has vowed to add more power to the back end of the bullpen. As detailed here, the Diamondbacks have ranked at or near the bottom in reliever velocity and strikeouts for four of the last five years. Clearly the inability to get strikeouts and ground balls hurt Melancon and the team a great deal in 2022. Under guaranteed contract for 2023, he will be a member of the bullpen, but it's unclear what role he'll have. He's bounced back before however, and he's an intense competitor, albeit in a quiet way.
