Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Emmanuel Rivera
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
The D-backs brought right-handed infielder Rivera over from the Kansas City Royals at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for RHP Luke Weaver. He hit well with the Diamondbacks at first, but ended with a modest 2022 slash line.
He played in fewer games in 2023, but was able to hit somewhat more consistently, despite hitting for significantly less power. He was a decent defensive infielder, playing most of his starts at third base, but also giving first baseman Christian Walker an occasional day off, and being sparingly used as a pinch hitter or DH against left-handed pitching
After starting 2023 very hot and hitting well through July, he slumped through August and September, and seeing very limited action in the playoffs, where he produced a .235/.278/.294 slash.
The Projection
Alex D'Agostino
Our composite projections expect a slight regression in overall batting average and on-base percentage, as well as walk rate and strikeout rate. However, more faith is put into the pop of his bat, with a nearly 50 point increase in slug and ISO (Isolated Power).
His OPS is expected to rise to around average, following a less-than-impressive .672 in 2023. He was mainly a contact hitter, good for an occasional single than a slugger.
Steamer and ZiPS are both very close in their projections, and while he likely won't get many starts at third base with the addition of Eugenio Suárez, he could see some platoon DH or infield opportunities against left-handed pitching. Our playing time projections expect just 172 plate appearances, but his percentage rates still show that of a decently solid hitter that could be serviceable.
Neither system expects more than a 95 wRC+ for the right-handed bat, although ZiPS does expect a solid number of RBI (50) and ten home runs for Rivera.
Why Rivera might outperform this projection
Rivera is still decently young, going into just his fourth MLB season at age 28.
While he's never provided an exceptional amount of production or serious thump in his bat, he profiles well as a contact hitter. He significantly improved his strikeout rate in 2023, utilized the full field with his batted balls, and was above average in both xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Rivera won't see a large workload, but he hits very well against lefties, hitting nearly 45 points higher against lefties (.289) in 2023 than against righties (.246). With the addition of left-handed bat Joc Pederson to DH against right-handers, Rivera could be relegated to only seeing action against lefties, which could very well help him raise his percentage stats and hit much more efficiently.
Rivera also hit well with runners in scoring position, coming in at a .295 clip with 25 RBI in the situation.
Defensively, he is a solid glove at third base, with a total of eight rDRS. Although Suárez had an excellent defensive 2023, Rivera's glove could allow him more opportunities to see the field if Suárez sees some regression.
Depending on the right-handed hitting situation in Arizona, Rivera could have an opportunity to play to his strengths in a platoon role, producing well in limited action and being a solid bench bat for the D-backs.
Why Rivera might underperform this projection
Rivera has never had an exceptional statistical season. Although going on hot streaks occasionally, he consistently hits for barely around average, and his actual power is completely nonexistent.
Rivera has only had one season where he's exceeded .400 slugging, and his OPS is generally below average. He also struggles to get on base without hitting well, as his OBP can get below .300 occasionally due to his general lack of walks.
He offered a -9 batting run value in 2023, and his below-average speed and base running offers very little outside of an occasional single. If not given the right circumstances to be able to hit in his comfort zone, Rivera could regress to a below average slash line. Any influx of strikeouts would seriously affect his numbers, and the potential addition of another right-handed bat could take away the opportunity for Rivera to spend any significant time in the lineup.
He is a platoon hitter, but if the platoon opportunities aren't there, he could underperform even a modest slash line in 2024.
Summary
Rivera is in a tough spot, with his role likely decreasing in 2024. While he has a chance to become a DH or pinch hit option against left-handers, which would help his rate projections greatly, it's not a guarantee he'll have a regular role with the team in 2024, and his underlying metrics don't offer a great deal of encouragement that the infielder could be in store for a breakout season.
