Gabriel Moreno, Daulton Varsho Trade Evaluation, Part 2
In the previous installment of this trade evaluation we focused just on the players involved in the trade of Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel. The conclusion was that based on projected value in 2023 Varsho was likely to produce more than the combined efforts of Moreno and Gurriel for a lower cost. But in the ensuing years that value would shift in Moreno's favor even if he simply reaches a median projection, and would be a strong positive for the D-backs if Moreno becomes the star he's projected to be.
Today we will take a closer look at what this means in the context of the entire Diamondbacks roster in both the short and long term.
SHORT TERM IMPACT
For 2023 the win projection works out slightly lower by 0.6 while the payroll increases $3.5 million.
Jack Sommers
The loss of Varsho is significant of course. He was projected in the last iteration to receive 580 PA and produce 3.0 WAR. Newly acquired outfielder Gurriel is projected to get 397 PA but produce just 0.8 WAR. A hitter with a good track record, Gurriel's defense is rated as well below average. He also suffered a power outage last year, driving down his projections further. A wrist/hamate bone injury requiring surgery was the likely cause however. Should his power stroke return he will close that WAR gap at least somewhat.
The primary recipient of the nearly 183 PA projected difference between Varsho and Gurriel turns out to be Alek Thomas. Right now the outfield would seem to line up with Gurriel in left field, Thomas in center, and Corbin Carroll in right. Jake McCarthy will likely play left field and DH against right handed starters, and also spell Thomas and Carroll in center and right when they need days off. That could come when the team faces a lefty, as McCarthy had the best platoon splits among the left handed batters on the team last year.
Most of the gap in WAR production however is made up by simply giving significant playing time to Moreno in place of Jose Herrera and Ali Sanchez who was DFA'd. On a rate basis (WAR/PA) Moreno is already projected to be either the second or third best player on the team, behind Carroll and on par with Ketel Marte. But of course as a catcher he is projected for less playing time than those two. Mike Hazen also made clear that Carson Kelly is going to get a lot of playing time while Moreno ramps up into a full time player sometime down the road.
There was also the addition of infielder Diego Castillo in a separate deal that impacts the backup infielder picture somewhat. Right now I project Castillo, Geraldo Perdomo, and Emmanuel Rivera splitting backup playing time and taking turns with their time on the major league roster. All three have options. There could be a lot of shuttling back and forth for these three players. By mid season Blaze Alexander could be getting some looks and Jordan Lawlar will like be up in late August once there is no danger of him exhausting rookie status in 2023.
Jack Sommers
The pitching side of the ledger actually went up slightly with the removal of Taylor Widener from the roster. I apportioned the 15 innings Widener was projected to get over to Luis Frias and Edwin Uceta.
Jack Sommers
LONG TERM IMPACT
Moreno is projected to be star. Of course there is risk associated with a young player that has only 73 PA in the major leagues. But this is as close to a major league ready star that could be added to the roster. The long term impact potential then is quite high. Should Moreno reach that potential and exceed the modest projections in the tables presented today and in part one of the series they will have more than replaced what they were expected to get from Varsho. This is what the team is banking on.
In the mean time the Diamondbacks still have a ridiculous amount of depth at left handed outfield. Not only do they still have Carroll, Thomas and McCarthy, but Dominic Fletcher and Dominic Canzone are good depth players right behind them. So the loss of Varsho should be mostly mitigated even if Moreno is just average.
The problem going forward to 2024 remains right handed balance in the outfield. Gurriel will be a free agent after 2023. The first internal option on the 40 man roster could be Jorge Barrosa. The switch hitter has solid numbers against both righties and lefties. But he is a contact/speed player, and does not have a lot of power. The team does not have any other right handed outfielders close to the majors, as Druw Jones is at least two or three years away. So it's very likely the team will need to go outside the organization again to find a stop gap right handed option in 2024.
The hope is that by 2025 Druw Jones can ascend to the major leagues. There is also the possibility that Kristian Robinson could re-emerge as a prospect but he hasn't played in a game since 2019.
