Jake McCarthy finished 4th in the NL Rookie of the year voting
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Status: Rookie, league minimum
Jake McCarthy 2022 and career stats
2022 Season Review
Back in September Michael McDermott profiled Jake McCarthy in depth. I highly recommend clicking that link. It was just announced tonight that McCarthy finished 4th in the NL Rookie of the year voting. (Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris won the award)
Despite being taken in the first round of the 2018 draft with the 39th overall pick, Jake McCarthy was a relatively unheralded prospect. He showed solid batted average, on base and stolen base skills through his first couple of professional seasons, but the power had not yet emerged. After missing out on the opportunity to play at the Alt site in 2020, he came back in 2021 with a revamped swing and hit with power. He smashed 40 extra bases hits in just 328 at bats in 2021. His batting average and on base suffered but he still earned a promotion to the majors late in 2021.
He held his own in his MLB debut at age 23, and earned a shot to make the club in spring training 2022, which he did. Playing sparingly off the bench however, McCarthy struggled at plate, going just 3-25, .120 B.A. and struck out 12 times. Optioned back to Triple-A Reno, he crushed the ball. In 20 games he hit .400 with five homers and a 1.199 OPS. That earned him a recall to the majors on May 20th.
From May 20th to June 14th he hit .278/.328/.482, good for a .809 OPS in 58 PA. In a sign of what was to come later he also went 4-10 with runners in scoring position. But curiously it wasn't good enough for the Diamondbacks, who decided to option him back to Reno in a roster crunch. The team hinted that they were concerned about the strikeouts and some of the underlying batted ball metrics. While it was true he had struck out 18 times during that span, it was still a strange call. During that same exact same time span fellow left handed outfielder Pavin Smith had hit just .152 and struck out 20 times. But it was McCarthy that got sent down. It was a baffling decision for an organization that constantly states they are committed to winning games.
Not one to hang his head, McCarthy went back to work in Reno. All he did was hit, batting .333 with a .882 OPS from June 19th to July 9th. That earned him a recall to MLB, where McCarthy would make the most of the opportunity.
From the time he was recalled July 11th until the end of the season he hit .302/.361/.434, .795 OPS. He turned singles into doubles, stole 23 bases while getting caught just three times. While his power is still developing, he ended up with 27 extra base hits, including eight homers in 321 at bats.
McCarthy also established himself as one of the most dependable hitters in clutch situations, putting the ball in play and getting hit after hit with runners in scoring position. For the full year he hit an incredible .403 and drove in 33 runs in 77 at bats in those situations. That was good for the second highest in franchise history With two outs and runners in scoring position he hit a ridiculous .531, on 17 for 32, by far the best in franchise history. While such stats are usually not predictive or repeatable, it's testament to his commitment to put the ball in play and impact the game in any way he could. That approach personified the identity that the team has created for itself with athletic, heads up baseball.
Defense:
McCarthy played all three outfield positions in 2022, with 312 innings in right, 243 in left, and 81 in center. He was also started 11 games at DH, as Torey Lovullo strove to spread around the playing time with a crowded outfield situation.
McCarthy rated -1 defensive runs saved at baseball reference and exactly 0 runs prevented above average according to statcast. There were times when McCarthy was not able to capitalize on his athleticism and he mishandled a few balls, although he was charged with just one error for the year. His rating on outfield jumps and route running was -1.4 feet vs. average. His arm strength also rated slightly below average as well.
All of these ratings may seem counter intuitive, considering how fast and strong McCarthy is. But there is clearly room for improvement.
2023 Outlook
By the end of 2022 not only had McCarthy established himself as an every day player, but had taken over the third spot in the order by early September. Had he not been optioned out to Reno in the middle of the season he might have finished even higher than 4th in the NL rookie of the year voting. He should be primed to feature as a main cog in the 2023 Diamondbacks lineup.
But he plays for an organization that puts a lot of weight on "expected statistics" from statcast, and no player on the team outperformed his expected stats more than McCarthy. With a glut of left handed hitting outfielders in the majors and on the 40 man roster, the team may feel that McCarthy is a sell high candidate that can help fill other holes. That would be a mistake in my opinion.
His ground ball percentage was somewhat high at 49.2% vs. 43% league average, but that was a function of him concentrating on contact. When he elevates the ball he shows plenty of power. As with many players the question becomes can they maintain average and on base as they reach for more power. From my observations of this player, I believe he can. His average home run was over 400 feet and this swing off Aaron Nola seemed effortless.
