Noah Syndergaard Would Give Arizona a Veteran Starter
Just five years ago, Noah Syndergaard was considered a foundational piece for the New York Mets. The headlining prospect in the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012 broke in with the Mets in 2015 and helped them win a National League pennant. While he never came close to the ceiling he flashed in the past, Syndergaard was a useful member of the Mets starting rotation from 2015-19 before injuries took their toll. After reaching free agency last winter, he signed a one-year, $21 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels and was later traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, where he helped them win their first pennant since 2009. After a successful season, he hits the free agent market for the second year in a row.
The Diamondbacks will be looking to add some more certainty to their rotation. After Zach Davies opted out of his mutual option and hit the free agent market, the D-backs may have reasons to go after a veteran starter to solidify the back-end of their rotation and rely less on their farm system. Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, and Brandon Pfaadt have the talent and durability to slot into a rotation spot out of spring, but the question remains if the team is comfortable with their Opening Day rotation featuring possibly two rookies.
With the potential need to add some experience to the rotation, Syndergaard could be an interesting fit. Once a pitcher who had the stuff to blow away hitters, injuries have dropped his average fastball velocity from 97.9 MPH in 2019 to 94.5 in 2022. That has also heavily affected his strikeout rate, which dropped from 24.5% to 16.8%. Once a potential budding ace in New York, Syndergaard has more or less settled into a bottom of the rotation starter that can eat up a fair amount of innings. He pitched 134.2 innings in 24 starts in 2022, showing that he can still be an effective starter without premium stuff.
The D-backs already have a solid 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation with Zac Gallen, who finished 5th in the NL Cy Young vote, and Merrill Kelly. It's also worth noting that Kelly is 34 years old and is coming off a career year in Arizona, accumulating 3.6 of his career 7.8 Wins Above Replacement on Baseball Reference. With only two proven starters, there is a lot of variance with how the starting rotation could perform in 2023, which is both good and bad. Relying on multiple rookies to perform in the rotation may simply be too much to ask, even for guys who've already faced big league hitters in 2022.
This is where Syndergaard could come into play, although he himself isn't a sure bet to make 30 starts either due to health concerns. He, Kelly, and Gallen would take the top three spots of the rotation while the team sees if Madison Bumgarner is still playable and devote one rotation spot to whichever rookie wins it in camp. As the season progresses and if Bumgarner is unable to hold a spot, the team can look to the farm for a solution. With four starting pitcher prospects that were able to accumulate at least 155 innings and are a stone's throw from the big leagues, the D-backs may elect to roll the dice instead of spend money to shore up a rotation spot.
Given that Syndergaard has already taken the one year pillow deal in 2022, it might not be easy to convince him to take another such deal and he may opt to take the first decent multiyear offer he can find on the market. If the market doesn't offer him such a contract, Arizona could be a nice destination for him to continue to build up his value with a terrific defense behind him and one of the best pitching coaches in the history of the game in Brent Strom.
