Possible Trade Targets to Upgrade the Diamondbacks Bullpen
In the first three installments about the bullpen, we went over some of the internal candidates in the Diamondbacks organization that could contribute to the bullpen. In order to give themselves the best chance to improve the relief corps, the D-backs need to cast a wide net and see where they can upgrade the backend. That includes trades and free agent signings, if they are doable.
- Current relievers on MLB roster who can compete for a 2023 role
- Current relievers in minor league system who may contribute
- Starting pitcher conversion to reliever candidates in the system
- External trade targets
- Free agents
Part four will cover potential trade targets for Arizona to look at this winter. The trade market for relief pitchers is very tricky to navigate and get a good deal, as teams like to hold onto their best controllable relievers unless they get a massive trade package. As a result, it can be easy to overpay in trade value for a team looking to get that last piece in the bullpen.
These are four trade candidates who might be available due to being on rebuilding clubs that might be looking to extract value from these guys sooner rather than later.
RHP Joe Jiménez, Detroit Tigers
Jiménez is one of the underrated arms in baseball, languishing in Detroit where his 3.49 ERA is currently underperforming his 2.01 FIP and 2.71 xFIP. Due to more advanced ERA estimators being bullish about his run prevention skill, the Tigers will get calls to see if he's available. With a 33% strikeout rate vs. a 5% walk rate, Jiménez is the ideal candidate to install for either the closer role or as a high-leverage fireman against the top or middle of an opposing team's lineup.
Jimenez only has one year of control left and with the Tigers starting over with their front office, the soon to be 28-year-old reliever may be available on the market for whatever Detroit can get for him. He's the type of reliever the D-backs need, as his 31% strikeout rate in high leverage situations vs. 5.6% walk rate makes him a go-to-arm for tied games or one-run leads late against more difficult portions of the lineup.
Health is the main concern for Jiménez, as he's spent two separate stints on the injured list this season. He's currently dealing with a back issue that reportedly won't require surgery to fix. As a rental arm and the potential to see how this team competes with an improved bullpen, I think this may be the best avenue for the D-backs to take in terms of improving the bullpen with a trade.
LHP A.J. Puk, Oakland Athletics
Puk is a former top draft pick that has moved to the bullpen due to a series of injuries. He is a young and controllable arm, who could be in Arizona for the next four years, that could be a great fit as a potential closer or high leverage fireman, which will make trading for him very difficult. Given that Oakland seems interested in trying to extract as much value as possible in a rebuild, Puk will be available in the right deal. The D-backs have to be careful to not include any of their young promising outfielders or starting pitcher prospects to facilitate this deal, which may take them out of the running.
Puk averages 97 MPH on his fastball, but can get homer prone at times despite pitching his home games in a very big ballpark. Puk is averaging about one home run per nine innings, which is the one issue for someone with his stuff. Some of the ballparks in the National League West are very stingy at allowing home runs, so a move to Arizona may help suppress that.
In high leverage situations, Puk has the highest strikeout (32.6%) and walk rate (10.9%) of the group. That can be a double-edged sword as you need a pitcher who can only not miss bats in these situations but also avoid free passes. Under Brent Strom, the hope is the walks come down without negatively impacting the strikeout rate.
RHP Scott Barlow, Kansas City Royals
Barlow has made a successful run as the Royals closer for the past two years, saving 40 of 50 games and pitching to a 2.33 ERA in 138 appearances. He comes with the caveat of 10 blown saves in the past two years, although he is 24/28 for 2022. He leans ground ball, with a 1.15 ground ball to fly ball ratio according to Fangraphs, although having a better outfield defense may serve to suppress his ERA a bit. With a regime change and Barlow turning 30 next January, there is an opportunity to strike a trade.
Advanced run prevention estimators such as FIP (3.13) and xFIP (3.51) believe that his ERA is outperforming his true run prevention skill. Even so, those two numbers would be a big upgrade over the current D-backs bullpen. There is also a concern about Barlow, who's seen his fastball velocity drop from 95.3 MPH in 2021 to 93.7 MPH in 2022. That has also correlated in a drop-off in strikeout rate, with a 3% drop from 29.7% to 26.3%.
RHP Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
Finnegan is a hard-throwing righty in the Washington bullpen, averaging 97 MPH on his fastball. While his strikeout rate isn't as impressive as Jimenez, the 31-year-old reliever still strikes out 26% of hitters while walking just 8%. He can get a bit homer prone, as his home runs per nine innings pitched is 1.29 in 2022 after a 1.23 mark in 2021.
As we've seen with Ian Kennedy, a homer-prone reliever could create some problems in one-run or tied games. The hope is that moving to the NL West can suppress that to some degree. It's also worth noting that despite an above-average strikeout rate, Finnegan has only a 20.8% strikeout in high leverage situations in 2022. The lack of strikeouts in that situation is a problem that already exists in the D-backs bullpen, so he might not be an ideal candidate to close or pitch high leverage innings.
