Carroll Remains Frontrunner in 2023 Rookie of the Year Race

Just a month into the 2023 season, two National League West outfielders have emerged as the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year. The Diamondbacks' Corbin Carroll and Dodgers' James Outman have paced this year's rookie class in terms of Wins Above Replacement on Baseball Reference (bWAR).

WAR is an important stat to follow in the race, as nine of the last 10 NL Rookie of the Year winners had the highest total in their respective years. 2019 season was the lone exception, with Pete Alonso (5.2) beating out Mike Soroka (5.9). Outman and Carroll are the only two players who have amassed at least 1.0 bWAR amongst NL rookies this season, with Outman leading the pack at 1.4 and Carroll close behind with 1.1. It probably comes as no surprise that the Dodgers outfielder won NL Rookie of the Month for the month of April.

Josh Jung: .270 AVG, .824 OPS, 6 HR, 21 RBI
James Outman: .292 AVG, .991 OPS, 7 HR, 20 RBI

Your AL and NL Rookies of the Month! pic.twitter.com/dJER3yg8Qf
— MLB (@MLB) May 3, 2023

There are still five more months left in the 2023 season and a lot can change. Health is obviously the main factor, as injuries can easily alter the outcome of this race. The D-backs already got a health scare from Carroll over the weekend after he crashed into the outfield wall in Colorado and was unavailable for the next two games.

The Frontrunners

The other factor is the sustainability of the starts for both Carroll and Outman. Here's a look at some key stats between the two frontrunners.

Both players have an unsustainably high average on balls in play (BABIP), with Outman and Carroll putting up .407 and .386 BABIP respectively. Carroll's speed, which ranks in the 100th percentile on Statcast, is more conducive towards a higher BABIP as he'll leg out more infield hits. Carroll has been much more selective of late, putting up a 9/8 strikeout to walk rate in his past 12 games.

For Outman, the key issue that could come back to bite him is a 33.3% strikeout rate. Historically, there isn't good precedence for a player to hit for a solid average with that high a strikeout rate. While he does a good job of not chasing out of the zone, ranking in the 73rd percentile in chase rate, there is still a lot of swing and miss. His 38.0% whiff rate ranks in the fourth percentile amongst big league hitters and his 71.9% contact on pitches in the zone is 10% worse than the major league average. So this is a case where a guy has a lot of in-zone swing and miss, suggesting there might not be much to be done about that strikeout rate.

According to Stathead, only six such times has a player hit .260 or better with a strikeout rate of 30% or higher. The common theme of this list is it's populated by sluggers who also had solid batting eyes, with all six players drawing at least 77 walks and five of the six players hitting 38 or more home runs. Outman has a lot of historical precedence against him maintaining a solid average, but all six instances have come in the past 15 years.

It's not impossible to hit for a solid average with that high a strikeout rate, as Kris Bryant was able to hit .275 in his rookie season with a strikeout rate of 30.6%. Bryant slugged 26 home runs and benefitted from a .378 BABIP en route to winning 2015 NL Rookie of the Year, but that mark is a clear outlier in his career. It's possible that Outman could follow a similar blueprint if he can sustain that type of batted ball luck throughout the entire season, but that seems very unlikely.

For Carroll, there are more ways for him to rack up value due to his speed. He's stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts, with Baseball Reference crediting him with +2 baserunning runs above average already. This is an area where he'll create a large separation from Outman, who is a fast runner himself but won't get nearly as many opportunities to push it on the bases.

Based on the trends, it seems that Carroll has the easier path to winning Rookie of the Year. However, there still remains the possibility that Outman can buck historical precedent with either a very high BABIP or slug enough home runs to reduce the impact of his strikeout rate to produce a solid average.

Dark Horse?

Brett Baty began the season with the New York Mets Triple-A affiliate and forced his way onto the big league club. In his first 14 games, Baty is hitting .311/.367/.489 with two home runs and an OPS+ of 136. The batted ball data is encouraging for the Mets rookie, as he's averaging 93.2 MPH on the balls he's put into play while improving his launch angle nearly two full degrees up to 11.7. As a result, he's posted a hard-hit (95+ MPH exit velocity) rate of 56.3% and a barrel rate of 12.1%.

It's also worth noting that Baty has less than 50 plate appearances, so it's already too early to make any lasting predictions for how his season will go. Having spent the first two weeks of the season in the minors, he already faces an uphill battle to try to overcome the value that Carroll and Outman could produce with a full season. He would have to drastically out-hit both frontrunners to finish higher than third in the race.