Game #34 Preview: D-backs Look to Finish Sweep of Nationals

The Diamondbacks (19-14) look to sweep the Washington Nationals (13-20) this weekend after taking the first two games. Starting pitching has been excellent, with Merrill Kelly and Tommy Henry allowing just three runs in 13 innings. Rookie right-hander Ryne Nelson takes the mound in the series finale, looking to follow the leader.

Series Recap

Game 1: Kelly turned in his best start of the season to date, striking out 10 in seven strong innings in a 3-1 win. The D-backs scratched across the winning runs in the fourth inning on a slowly-hit ground ball and a sacrifice fly, thanks to a fielding miscue from Nationals shortstop C.J. Abrams. Arizona pitchers retired the final 11 hitters to close out the game.

Game 2: Tommy Henry shook off a rough fourth inning, allowing just two runs in six innings for his first quality start of the year. Arizona looked to be in control of the game, taking a 6-2 lead in the top of the ninth inning, but primary closer Andrew Chafin was unable to hold the lead, surrendering four runs with two outs. The D-backs were able to rally in the bottom of the ninth, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. tying the game on the very first pitch and Pavin Smith drew a bases-loaded walk against Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan to walk it off 8-7.

Pitching Matchup

Ryne Nelson (6 GS, 1-2, 6.39 ERA, 31 IP, 19 K, 9 BB, 1.52 WHIP)

After posting back-to-back quality starts against the Dodgers and Marlins, Nelson has struggled in each of his last three starts. Over that period, he's pitched 14 innings, allowing 15 runs on 23 hits, three walks, and nine strikeouts. The main issue has been throwing too many strikes over the heart of the plate, with 142 of his 243 pitches in the rulebook strike zone and more than half of them listed in the "heart" zone on Statcast. The key will be for Nelson to start working areas of the zone that batters cannot do damage on.

Nelson's fastball averages 94 MPH with a vertical movement profile, but the pitch has been hit hard this season with opposing hitters batting .382 with a .588 slugging percentage. His secondary stuff has performed decently well so far this season, but has had trouble getting to those pitches during this rough patch. Nelson may need to change up the approach on the mound and use more off-speed pitches early in the count to keep Washington hitters guessing.

Trevor Williams (6 GS, 1-1, 3.41 ERA, 31.2 IP, 21 K, 7 BB, 1.23 WHIP)

The Nationals signed Trevor Williams to a two-year, $13 million contract last winter and the results have been positive in his first six starts. Williams has provided the Nationals stability in the back half of their rotation, with a 3.41 ERA and a 3.00 strikeout to walk ratio. Advanced metrics believe that Williams is due for future ERA regression, with a FIP of 4.44, xFIP of 4.95, and an xERA of 5.87.

Williams is not overpowering, with his four-seamer averaging just over 90 MPH, but can command six different pitch types. He uses the four-seamer 46% of the time, then mixes in a sinker (18.7%), changeup (16.9%), slider (8.5%), curveball (7.4%), and sweeper (2.4%). While he mixes in all those pitches, he has been fairly predictable in his locations so hitting coaches Joe Mather and Damion Easley should be able to craft a solid game plan. The key will be to attack the four-seamer early in the count and put the pressure on the Nationals defense.

Lineups

Notes

Arizona will be operating with an outfield of Gurriel, Fletcher, and Smith today, likely prioritizing offense while giving struggling center fielder Alek Thomas a much-needed off day. Thomas has been in a horrific slump on offense to start the year, hitting .184 with a .577 OPS, but produced two key hits last night's win.

Arizona hitters haven't faced Williams much in the past, with the most at-bats for a player being 10. First baseman Christian Walker has had the most success against him, going 2-for-6 with an RBI. On the flip side, no batter on Washington's roster has faced Nelson in a big league game although outfielder Stone Garrett likely has the most intel as a former teammate in Reno last season.