LA Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets Game 7 Preview and Prediction
The LA Clippers blew another substantial lead on Sunday afternoon, falling 111-98 to the Denver Nuggets after going up by as many as 19 points early in the second half.
Without getting too far into it, the loss was nearly identical to the one LA suffered in Game 5. The Clippers built up a big lead, got comfortable with where they were at, and waited far too long to respond once Denver began fighting back.
This time, though, it was an even more egregious example of complacency.
LA led by as many as 16 in Game 5 and trailed by as many as eight late in the fourth quarter. In Game 6, the Clippers' 19-point advantage was turned into a 16-point deficit by game's end. At one point, the Nuggets rattled off 17 consecutive points while the Clippers struggled to get a single quality look.
There was no stopping the bleeding once it began. It wasn't just Denver knocking down every shot it put up — it was the Clippers settling for contested jumpers and going away from the plan that had worked so well in the first half of each of the last two games.
Now, after leading 3-1 in the series, it's come down to a Game 7. The winner will advance to the Western Conference Finals for a meeting with the Los Angeles Lakers. The loser goes home.
Key Storylines
LA: Who Earns the Minutes?
One of the main strengths of this LA Clippers team throughout the regular season was its depth. The first four guys off the bench could realistically start for another competitive team.
But in the postseason, that's been a different story — and it's probably time for the rotation to tighten up a bit.
Fortunately, Doc Rivers agrees.
"You don't worry about minutes as much [in a Game 7]," Rivers said Monday. "You can extend minutes. Now, extending minutes can be dangerous because some guys just can't handle them, and so if they can't handle them, you can't do them."
So, who would be a candidate to have his minutes cut? Or rather, who should have his minutes cut?
Montrezl Harrell is one, for sure. The Clippers have been abysmal on both ends when he's on the floor with Nikola Jokic in this series, and Denver has completely taken advantage of that. In the fourth quarter of each of the last two contests, the Nuggets have gone to an almost all-offense lineup, and it's worked wonders.
Harrell isn't necessarily unplayable in this series — the Clippers have done fine when he's on the floor with Mason Plumlee, for example — but LA can't afford to spend another minute with both Harrell and Jokic on the floor together. It's become a nightmare of a matchup.
Other players that should have their minutes cut include Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet, who offer very little on defense and the same main skill on offense, which is three-point shooting. Shamet is the better player of the two, though, and if the situation calls for it, he should be the one that gets in to try to get something going on offense.
As far as who should have their minutes bumped up (besides the starting rotation, because all of them deserve it), JaMychal Green has had a solid series and is easily LA's best rebounder off the bench. Given his ability to space the floor and feast on the glass, he should get some run at center when Ivica Zubac is on the bench.
The key, really, will be avoiding the Harrell-Jokic minutes. If LA can make that happen, there's no reason why it can't win Game 7.
Denver: Does Another Big Fourth Quarter Await?
Over the last two games, the Denver Nuggets have been most dominant in the fourth quarter. They're averaging 36 points in the frame to LA's 22, and their shooting has been spectacular down the stretch. It's one of the main reasons why the last two second halves have gone the way they have, along with LA's offense completely collapsing.
In the fourth quarter of Game 5, Denver shot 11-of-18 on field goals and 7-of-9 from three-point range. Jokic, Jamal Murray and Jerami Grant were 6-of-6 from deep in the frame.
In the fourth quarter of Game 6, Denver shot 13-of-21 on field goals and, once again, 7-of-9 from deep. Jokic and Gary Harris were 5-of-5 from three, while Michael Porter Jr. and Torrey Craig sank the other two.
Plenty of Denver's attempts from three have been wide-open looks, as well, which simply can't happen. Miscommunications on defense have been a big issue in each of the last two fourth quarters, and while that's to be expected when Patrick Beverley fouls out early in the frame, LA is far too good a team to just let it happen.
That said, Denver deserves a lot of credit here as well — they've been relentless on offense, and they've played extremely well with their backs against the wall.
Prediction
Regardless of who wins Game 7, this one is going to be a slugfest. Expect a low-scoring, high-intensity contest that's decided by 10 points or less.
If the Clippers are going to win, it's going to come down to a few specific adjustments. Doc Rivers said it best — this team has the formula to win. That much is obvious. It just depends on how closely everybody follows the game plan and how well they execute down the stretch. Does LA play a full 48 minutes and stick to the instructions? Or does Denver overwhelm them again and make them overcomplicate things?
It's a coin toss, but we've got to go with the Clippers in a tight one.
Clippers 96, Nuggets 90
How to Watch
The LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets will take the floor for Game 7 on Tuesday, Sep. 15 at 9:00 p.m. ET. The contest will air on ESPN.
