Can Chet Holmgren Legitimately Challenge Victor Wembanyama as the League’s Best Rookie?
This year, Victor Wembanyama dominated the talk of the NBA Draft, and rightfully so. The 7-foot-4 Frenchman’s once in a generation skillset made him the consensus top pick, and for many, the consensus favorite for next year’s Rookie Of The Year award.
However, while it’s possible none of his fellow 2023 NBA draftees will be able to match his rookie season, we cannot forget about the second overall pick in last year’s draft: Chet Holmgren.
After being drafted to Oklahoma City with the second pick, Holmgren suffered a foot injury in a summer pro-am game, which sidelined him for the entirety of his first season as a pro. First overall pick Paolo Banchero went on to take home the 2023 Rookie Of The Year honors.
With the 7-foot-1 Thunder center set to have his rookie season after a year of NBA training under his belt, could he legitimately challenge Wembanyama as the league’s best rookie?
Offensively, Wembanyama and Holmgren are in very different situations. Wembanyama is the primary focus of a Spurs team that will not be ready to compete until he has reached a superstar level. Their plan for the future is to develop the generational talent into the all-world player he seems destined to be, then rely on him to lead the organization to a familiar spot atop the league.
In his rookie season, San Antonio’s star will immediately become the focal point of their offense. He will have lots of freedom to experiment as a creator and make mistakes. The sheer volume could lead to gaudy counting numbers, but he hasn’t yet sharpened his scoring tools enough to thrive as an NBA self-creator, so expect some inefficiency and growing pains.
Holmgren, however, is more of a plug-in spark to an already established core. Oklahoma City has their MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and have flanked him with two other jumbo creators in back-to-back draft classes with Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams. With all these young playmakers, the former Gonzaga Bulldog is a perfect fit. His two best offensive skills are finishing around the rim and shooting off the catch; the two things he’ll be asked to do the most in this offense as their primary screener. Unlike Wembanyama, Holmgren will likely not have as much free reign to create, rather functioning as a play-finisher off of others’ creation while the Thunder make another playoff push. This likely better suits him as well, for Holmgren is further behind than Wembanyama as a self-creator.
Defensively, both talents will likely dominate from day one. Wembanyama and Holmgren possess an unreal blend of mobility and presence at the rim.
Right now, Holmgren is the sharper defender. He’s more aware of his assignments and recognizes sets on a higher level than Wembanyama. On the contrary, even with how physically gifted Holmgren is, Wembanyama is on a different level. His extra inches of height and wingspan combined with his superior mobility more than make up for whatever he lacks in terms of defensive feel. It doesn’t matter if he’s late to react to a play, for he can get to where he needs to be fast enough and simply be big enough to send a shot to the rafters regardless.
Overall, it’s safe to say Wembanyama and Holmgren will have vastly different debut seasons. Oklahoma City's young big man will likely impact higher-level winning while San Antonio’s center will probably be more of an individual star on a team not yet too concerned with the postseason. There's a good chance Wembanyama still takes home the Rookie Of The Year Award; his talent advantage is just so significant. Still, Holmgren could very plausibly challenge for the award and even take it home at the conclusion of the season.
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