Jabari Smith Jr Is Struggling Due To Predictable Offense
For months, Jabari Smith Jr. was considered a strong possibility to be the first player picked off the board at the 2022 NBA Draft.
He ended up getting selected third, which undoubtedly had to sting for any player competing for that coveted number one spot.
However, given that Smith has had a somewhat rough start to the season, combined with Paolo Banchero looking like an All-Star candidate, his draft slot could end up be a blessing in disguise.
The world of the NBA can be relentlessly harsh. Fans of the league don't always carry much patience, and players who don't deliver immediately will often have the bust label thrown at them. This is, of course, entirely illogical as no two players are ever the same, and jumping from the college ranks to overseas is a tremendously difficult process.
Nine games into his NBA career, Smith is still searching for consistency and his jumper. The 6-foot-10 forward is hitting just 30.5% from the field, including 30.4% from downtown.
Over his last three outings, it's been particularly harsh. 19.2% shooting overall, and 14.3% from 3-point range.
While many, including myself, thought Smith's jumper would immediately translate, it hasn't yet. It will eventually, because he's too good a shooter for it not to, but his shooting struggles has unveiled a minor challenge that he and the Rockets coaching staff will need to work on: Shot creation.
Smith is primarily used as a catch-and-shoot stretch-big, who needs players around him to help facilitate shots. He's been assisted on 75% of all his shots, including on over 94% of his shots from the outside.
In a vacuum, being assisted isn't a problem. When the ball is popping and a team is capable of setting each other up it's usually an asset. For Smith, though, we've yet to see much of a counter when the going gets tough.
On the season only 8.6% of Smith's offense is coming within three feet of the basket. His average shot distance is over 18 feet. Teams already know he's far more inclined to launch long jumpers than put the ball on the deck and attack the rim, and thus they're defending him that way.
It would behoove the Rockets to use Smith more in the dunker spot, and teach him the art of the short-roll, as the season progresses so he has something else in his bag. I say this knowing full-well that his jumper will heat up eventually. Building his game isn't a reaction to a poor early start of shooting, but to round out his offensive game better.
Right now, the predictable nature of Smith's game has made fellow rookie Tari Eason the better option at the power forward position.
While Eason isn't a high-efficiency player himself (41.9% shooting), he's a bundle of energy who seemingly desires to be involved in every play when he's out there.
The presence of Eason allows Stephen Silas to scale back the minutes of Smith, in order to find advantageous matchups for him. This seems extra necessary during this current cold streak, as Smith is only 19 years old, and a broken confidence is the last thing he needs.
If Silas can put Smith in a position to string together a few good games, by using him more selectively over the next few weeks, it should help get the rookie on more solid footing.
Note that I'm not suggesting a demotion, but rather a deliberate plan of taking one step back to take two forward. It's clear that Smith right now is struggling mightily, and maintaining the status quo can put the teenager in a tough spot mentally, which isn't fair to anyone involved.
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