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Just How Valuable Can Gradey Dick's Shooting Be?
Unlike the versatile talents headlining the 2023 NBA Draft Class, Gradey Dick’s prospect candidacy is primarily fueled by a single extraordinary skill: his shooting ability.
However, simply labeling him a “shooter” doesn’t accomplish all that much. Every player who is given this label has one thing in common: they can make shots. But diving into the nuance of the types of shots and scenarios in which each individual can and can’t make them reveals worlds of difference, and helps to separate the end-of-bench niche “shooters” from the “shooters” capable of using their jumper to spark offense, also known as “scorers”.
With Dick drawing serious lottery buzz, it’s essential to map out his most likely landing spots on this spectrum to gauge his true value.
For one, Dick’s statistical profile from distance thus far is anomalous, both in high school and in college.
Through 11 games at Kansas, he’s made 49.2% of his 10.3 attempts from beyond the arc per 100 possessions. It's a small sample, but no other player at least 6-foot-8 has ever matched this production over the course of a season in a major conference nor the NBA. Also, his efficiency on jump shots ranks in the 95th percentile of all Division I players according to Synergy Sports.
The height and blazing speed of his release allow him to seamlessly shoot over contests in ways shorter players can’t. Helping off of Dick in any capacity is a potentially dire gamble.
He requires a defender in his grill at all times to prevent easy shots off the catch, which does wonders for team spacing. Sticking the 6-foot-8 shooter in the corner can essentially open up an entire side for teammates as his gravity as a shooter all but eliminates a line of help defense.
In the clip below, Jalen Wilson beats his man off the dribble and isn't met with any backline help as Dick’s defender is face-guarding him, resulting in an easy layup.
He has meaningful range too. He needs undivided attention when spotted up multiple feet beyond the arc, and can drag his defenders all the way out of the play in these scenarios.
Even when defenders do get smothering contests up, Dick has the capability to drill shots in their face. He’s a legitimate tough shot maker, ranking in the 95th percentile in efficiency on “guarded” jump shots per Synergy Sports, including shooting 20-for-38 from behind the arc.
Not only has Dick perfected spot-up shooting, but he’s also deadly as a catch-and-shooter on the move. He can find his mechanics regardless of prior momentum, and once again, his 6-foot-8 frame and blistering release make this approach even more undeniable.
This movement shooting ability allows him to increase his shooting volume and get the most out of his proficiency. It also allows him to be an offensive catalyst as actions can be called to specifically get him a 3-point opportunity.
When not directly involved in the primary offensive action, Dick can put immense stress on defenses to break open the floor. As I alluded to earlier, his defender needs to be stuck to him like a magnet at all times. This is just as true when he’s on the move, occupying help defenders at a higher degree.
In the clip below, the Kansas guard's movement drags the strongside help defender away from help position while also leaving the corner shooter wide open.
When it comes to getting his own shot off-the-dribble, more questions arise.
When given a clear path, his pull-up jumper is butter. Per Synergy Sports, he ranks in the 93rd percentile for efficiency on off-the-dribble jump shots. Most commonly, his makes are when he’s attacking a closeout or when he’s handling in transition. The ability to hoist jumpers as a ball-handler on the fastbreak makes him a weapon in these situations.
Still, he’ll likely never have the handle to consistently create space to shoot like Jayson Tatum or Paul George, but from Klay Thompson to Michael Porter Jr. to Bojan Bogdanovic, we’ve seen many bigger wings leverage their shooting prowess into volume scoring without a great handle.
Above all, the aforementioned star scorers share the ability to get to their spots to get their shot off. Dick excels at shooting over defenders, but he doesn’t yet quite have the handle, creativity, or strength to navigate through contact to arrive at a reasonable place to pull-up.
Notice how in the clips below, while it’s nothing crazy, Klay Thompson, Michael Porter Jr., and Bojan Bogdanovic are able to use their off-arm and keep their dribble alive through bumps to get to a high-percentage shot. This allows them to regularly punish smaller defenders, and even run some pick-and-roll.
However, when the Jayhawk freshman attempts something similar, he often gets bumped off his line and throws up a bad miss, or simply kills his dribble out of discomfort.
But there are some enticing flashes of what he can be as a self creator.
Dick really only needs marginal improvements to his handle and strength, though, and must master a few go-to moves. At just 19 years old with what he has already shown, there’s good reason to believe in this development occurring in the near future in order to complete his evolution from an elite “shooter” to a valuable “scorer”.
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