Sophomore Risers: Which 2021 Draftees Will Make Biggest Jump in 2022-23 Season?
The 2022-2023 NBA season is slowly creeping up on us, and that means last year's rookie class now graduates to being seasoned pros.
Well, sort of. Some are still under the legal drinking age, after all.
Nevertheless, some players will look to use the experience of their first season to build upon their game, and get better in year two.
While most will likely get better, three players stand out, for a variety of reasons, as players who could take a significant leap.
Josh Primo (Guard | San Antonio Spurs)
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Primo was raw last season, which makes sense considering he was the youngest player in the league. Despite that, he was trusted enough to give the Spurs 19.3 minutes per night over 50 games, which will turn out to be important developmental minutes given what will be an increased role this season.
Dejounte Murray is, somewhat surprisingly, now an Atlanta Hawk, and Lonnie Walker took his erratic shot-selection and underwhelming decision-making to the Los Angeles Lakers, where he presumably will fit in nicely. That opens the door for Primo, who won't turn 20 until late December, to get a ton of opportunities.
So what is Primo? While we have a rough idea, based on the first year of his career, we really don't know yet.
He's energetic, sure. He showed great spurts of athleticism, and his shot-selection (70.7% of his attempts came from either three-point territory or within three feet of the basket) was extremely encouraging. But can he run a team full-time, or is he better used as the secondary creator?
These are the questions we're looking to find answers to this year, as a 965-minute sample size at age 18 and 19 simply isn't enough of an indicator to figure such things out.
His 81 assists and 57 turnovers didn't exactly wow anyone in terms of his floor-leader potential, but at the same time, it's a clear-cut area to improve in, and it'd be shocking if the Spurs of all teams didn't have him work hard on minimizing mistakes.
All of this isn't to say that Primo is going to be knocking on the door of the NBA All-Star game in February, but more than we should expect to see some improvements, while other weaknesses reveal themselves, as is custom with young players.
All in all, expect to see an improved Primo who still has a long way to go.
Alperen Şengün - (Center | Houston Rockets)
Kevin Jairaj / USA TODAY Sports
Let's not kid ourselves here. Şengün was a steal at No. 16, especially as he might already be the second-best passer at the center position in the league, months before he enters just his second NBA season.
While he turned the ball over a ton, and fouled like he was on a mission, Şengün displayed an incredibly high floor, offering the team playmaking, passing, scoring, and even some shooting that most didn't expect to see that early.
The 20-year-old also had surprisingly high steal and block rates, and got to the line a ton on a per-minute basis, attempting 3.2 free throws in just 20.7 minutes.
With Christian Wood now in Dallas, you'd think Şengün is guaranteed more minutes, but the additions of Jabari Smith and Tari Eason could muddy those waters a bit. However, Smith might be more raw that originally believed, and Eason is a combo forward who shouldn't compete much for center minutes, if at all.
Furthermore, Şengün might simply be... well, better. We know he'll load up the box score on a nightly basis, which is a strong starting point for a young team looking to get better on a year to year basis.
For Şengün to break through this season, he'll need to round out his shooting, lessen his turnover rate, and become a smidge more efficient overall as a scorer.
Fortunately for him, he's got the tools to make that happen.
Ayo Dosunmu (Guard | Chicago Bulls)
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Alright, I know what you're going to say. "Put down the pipe, Mort. The Bulls have 2.5 million guards, so how on Earth should Ayo get the minutes?"
While the Bulls do indeed have 2.5 million guards, their starting point guard, Lonzo Ball, is currently dealing with a knee issue that the Bulls are very careful to talk about publicly. For those with some semblance of PR experience, that means it's bad. Possibly very bad. In fact, no assurances has been given to Ball's readiness for training camp, which is a bleak outlook.
That means one slot - and a significant one at that - has opened up. Now take into account the Bulls like Alex Caruso coming off the bench, Dalen Terry being a rookie, Goran Dragić being 78 years old, and that the Coby White experience isn't likely to last for more than this coming season, and suddenly you can see the path for Dosunmu to get his chance.
Assuming Ball isn't healthy to start the year, Dosunmu should be the obvious point guard replacement. The 22-year-old started 40 games last year and averaged over 27 minutes, frequently playing the point guard position. He even racked up over 10 assists four times, and had a five-game stretch where he dished 9.8 times per game.
Dosunmu also proved to be a highly capable point-of-attack defender, and an efficient shooter off the ball. At 6'5, Dosunmu even helped out on the glass, grabbing five or more rebounds 17 times.
So where does he stand to get better, you might think?
For one, Dosunmu was low on the shot-taking totem pole. With DeMar DeRozan likely not repeating his 27.9-point scoring average, the time for Aggressive Dosunmu is upon us. Secondly, if no Ball, Dosunmu should start, play 30-plus minutes per game, and be given the green light to assert himself offensively, as to really round him out as a player.
It's circumstantial, but definitely realistic.
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