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The Best Early Season 3-Point Shooting Draft Prospects

Who has the Cerebro 3PE metric pegged as the best shooting prospects so far this year?
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In today’s NBA the ability to shoot the basketball from beyond the 3-point is as valuable as ever. Cerebro Sports has put together a metric that:

  • Using the median shooting expectation offers a great degree of insight for an introductory shooting metric by considering the volume and efficiency within context.
  • Using this formulation, 3PE can place high percentage, low volume shooters on a continuum alongside low percentage, high volume shooters.
  • Using additional value on the developmental projection of shooting…3PE allows one to notice players who are starting to climb the shooting development curve, even with uneven early results.

Each skill score is graded on the same 100+ point scale. 60+ is good, 80+ is great, and 100+ is elite.

Not only are players who have not been tracked for at least four games and average 20 minutes per game filtered out, players who are not consistently looked at as 2023 NBA Draft prospects have been filtered as well.

Adam Flagler (Guard | Baylor) - 104 3PE

The 6-foot-3 senior for the Bears in Waco is shooting just under 54% from behind the arc on almost seven attempts per game on his way to averaging 17 points per game (through six games).

That is an almost 15% jump, on similar volume, from last season but Flagler is over 40% from the 3-point line for his career.

The Duluth, GA native is elite in the 3-point efficiency metric but also grades out great in point scoring prowess, floor general skills and defensive stat impact. The only area where he scores an average score is around the rim.

It will be interesting to monitor moving forward how this Baylor guard rotation plays out with Flagler, LJ Cryer, Dale Bonner and potential 2023 NBA Draft lottery pick, Keyonte George.

Brandon Miller (Forward | Alabama) - 104 3PE

The 6-foot-9 freshman for the Crimson Tide is also shooting over 50% from deep while scoring over 20 points per game through his first 6. 

Miller leads Alabama in points, field goals made, 3-point field goals made, free throws made, offensive rebounds and defensive rebounds per game in just under 32 minutes.

The Tennessee native also grades out as great in overall point scoring prowess and around the rim. He has quickly risen up NBA Draft Big Boards and regularly finds his name in the lottery mix.

Emoni Bates (Wing | Eastern Michigan) - 99 3PE

A 6-foot-8 Memphis transfer, Bates is the first prospect on this list not shooting over 50% but still comes in at an elite 45% on over eight attempts per game.

After a rough freshman season at Memphis where he shot less than 33%, the Michigan native has shown great growth in his second year playing college basketball.

Bates also boasts a great score of 84 in point scoring prowess but has room to grow with his overall game as he comes in as just good, or below, in the other three Cerebro metrics.

Keep an eye on Eastern Michigan overall win/loss this season and what impact that has on Bates individual success and draft stock. They have got off to a slow start, losing five of their first six games.

Gradey Dick (Wing | Kansas) - 98 3PE

The 6-foot-8 freshman for the Kansas Jayhawks has translated his hot shooting from his senior year of high school to his first year in Lawrence. Dick is knocking down 3-pointers at just under 48% on just over six attempts per game.

The Kansas native has also shown more of an all around game than many might have expected. He grades out at 86 in point scoring prowess and a surprising 78 on defensive stat impact.

While Dick has seemingly played his way into first round conversation, and maybe the lottery, he is playing alongside two fellow wings with NBA Draft potential in Jalen Wilson and Kevin McCullar. The play of these three Jayhawks will be something to keep an eye on throughout the season.

Terrence Shannon Jr. (Guard | Illinois) - 96 3PE

The 6-foot-6 Texas Tech transfer has impressively increased his 3-point shooting every year of his four year college career while at the same time increasing his volume. A 26% shooter on just over an attempt per game as a freshman, Shannon Jr. is now shooting over 47% on just under six attempts per contest.

Not only can the Illinois native shoot the ball from the outside but he also scores 70 or better on all five of the Cerebro metrics and will be the only player on this list that will also make the top five list for point scoring prowess.

It seems the move from Texas Tech and the Big 12 to the Fight Illini and the Big 10 was the right decision for Shannon Jr.'s NBA draft potential.

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