After Another Disappointing Season, The Atlanta Hawks Have Plenty Of Decisions To Make In Crucial Offseason
An exhausting and frustrating season is now in the books for the Atlanta Hawks.
After coming into the season with hopes of getting out of the play-in tournament and being a top-six seed or higher in the Eastern Conference, Atlanta battled injuries all season and finished a disappointing 36-46, 10th place in the Eastern Conference. After the embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bulls last night in the play-in tournament, the Atlanta Hawks are entering into what might be their most crucial offseason in years, possibly franchise history. What the Hawks do this summer could set the course for years to come in terms of what this franchise wants to do.
After being one of the most talked about teams leading up to the trade deadline this season, Atlanta opted to stand pat and ride out the rest of the season with the roster they had. It looked like the Hawks's season might end without a play-in appearance, but the rest of the Eastern Conference was so bad that the Hawks remained right where they were. They simply cannot afford to do that again given the state of the roster and the disappointing results.
So where do the Hawks go from here?
There are a few options. The least likely of any of their options would be to run this team back again and hope that they have better injury luck. The one thing you can say about this season is that the Hawks have been one of the most injured teams in the NBA with Trae Young, De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, and Kobe Bufkin all missing plenty of time this year and Johnson, Bey, and Okongwu were not able to suit against the Bulls last night in the loss. It is very unlikely they take this path, but I have learned to never count out the possibility,
It seems like the most likely scenario coming for the Hawks this summer is splitting up the Trae Young/Dejounte Murray pairing. Since giving up a lot of draft capital to acquire Murray, the results have not been there for the Hawks, and the numbers when they are on the court together are not very good. After the trade deadline, Hawks general manager Landry Fields had this to say about the Murray/Young pairing and whether or not it would work going into the future:
"The sample size is getting larger and larger and larger and assuming you're looking at specific lineups, and defensive and offensive ratings, which can always be debated as well.
Yeah, you're starting to see that more and more. And yeah I can't lie to you, the numbers speak to themselves on that.
But we're also interested in, well, let's say they are on the court together, and based off the numbers, its not working out.
Why is that? What are things we can do for them in the developmental aspect to make it look more like the on/off lineups I'm assuming that you're looking at? And ultimately that lays something out that is measurable.
Those are things now that from a development standpoint that you can look at and say 'Ok, can you progress in those areas?'
If you can't, then yeah, those are times like that- I'm not saying that's exactly how it is going to happen - with any player where you have to consider the changes that everyone would then be asking and looking for at the end of the day."
If the Hawks decide to split Young and Murray up, who is leaving?
I think the most likely scenario is that the Hawks try to find somewhere to trade Murray. I don't think trading Young and building around Murray is a real option for the franchise going forward. Some will point to the Hawks's record and defensive improvement in the 24 games where Young was out between February and April, but I don't think it is significant enough to make Murray the centerpiece of the franchise. Atlanta was 12-12 during Young's absence, with a 0.5 net rating. Yes, the defensive rating improved, but I don't think the Hawks showed they were a significantly better team with Murray on the floor and Young off of it. Murray played really well this season, especially after the trade deadline and I think the Hawks can get a nice haul back for him if they elect to trade him. Murray did outplay Young tonight vs the Bulls, but I still think Young is the better long-term option for Atlanta.
There are a few reasons that I don't think the Hawks will trade Young. 1) Neither the Hawks nor Young have expressed a desire to seek a trade up to this point. Any rumors involving Young have come from other front offices and "rival executives" Could the Hawks get more back for Young than they would Murray? Yes, but I think the tradeoff is worse. Young is a better player than Murray and the Hawks have a higher ceiling with him in my opinion, though it might be tougher to build around him. It was not that long ago that Young had the Hawks in the conference finals and there are not many players in the league that are as good offensively as he is. The roster construction since then has been really poor, resulting in the dilemma the Hawks find themselves in today. Has the Hawks front office shown they can build a quality roster around Young? No, they have not and that is a fair criticism, but I think they have another shot at doing it without having to completely tear things down.
If the Hawks want to trade Young, there is only one scenario that would even make sense in my opinion. Because the Hawks don't control their own draft picks for the next few seasons, trading him to San Antonio and getting all of those picks back from the Murray trade and then some would be the only thing that would make sense. If Atlanta traded Young anywhere but San Antonio, you would be making your team worse as well as not having your own draft picks. Atlanta would be in the same position as the Brooklyn Nets are right now, a below-average team with someone else's draft picks. Brooklyn was not good enough to even make the play-in, but can't get better through the draft lottery because they owe their draft pick to the Rockets because of the James Harden trade. I won't completely rule anything out, but I don't think the Hawks are going to trade Young to just build around Dejounte Murray. Atlanta is better on defense without Young, but just an average or below-average team overall when it is Murray and not Young out there. There is no evidence to suggest that the Hawks are a far better team with Murray instead of Young and that is not meant to be a shot at Murray. Young is one of the five or so best offensive players in the league who has shown the ability to get to the playoffs and win games.
The other option is to trade them both and build around Jalen Johnson. Do I think it is likely? Probably not, but if I was forced to trade Young, I would opt to trade Murray too, and go into a full rebuild. I just don't think the Hawks can be anything other than an average team with Murray (maybe I'm wrong) at the helm and would rather go into a full rebuild with Johnson, Kobe Bufkin, Onyeka Okongwu, and Mouhamed Gueye. The thing is, I don't think Quin Snyder would have taken this job last season if he thought the Hawks were going to go into a full rebuild and I have a hard time seeing him being on board for it now. There is no telling how long a rebuild would take and I don't think Snyder wants any part of that.
NBA Insider Shams Charania had this to say prior to the deadline regarding Quin Snyder and Trae Young:
"If you are Quin... from everything I have heard, the Quin-Trae relationship has been very good. I think there is two things. 1) Trae knows that he needs Quin to win and 2) Quin knows that he needs Trae if you are going to try and win in Atlanta and that relationship has been good so what do you do if you are Atlanta?"
While the Murray/Young pairing is the most important question the Hawks have to figure out, it is not the only one.
Assuming Atlanta keeps one of them, they need to figure out what to do with the pieces around them, aside from Jalen Johnson. Johnson looks like a future All-Star/All-NBA level player and there is no reason why the Hawks should trade him or think about trading him. He is eligible for a rookie extension and there is no reason the Hawks should not give it to him.
What about everyone else?
The Hawks need to decide if Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu, and De'Andre Hunter can be viable pieces going forward. Bogdanovic had perhaps his best season as a Hawk this year and is in contention for 6th Man Of The Year. He is a really good player, but it might be worth exploring what they could get in a trade for him to try and make the roster better.
After signing him to an extension before the start of the season, I think it would be best for Atlanta to go forward with Onyeka Okongwu as their starting center. Atlanta is better with him on the floor and after having him as Capela's backup for the past few seasons, it is probably time to move forward with Okongwu as the starter.
Hunter improved in a lot of areas and had perhaps the best stretch of his career on offense after he came back from his injury in late January, but he has struggled with injuries during his time. I could see the Hawks floating him out there to see what they could fetch back, but he is still a good defender and showed more potential on offense this year. Atlanta also does not have anyone else like him on the roster and should not just give him up unless there is a good return.
Tonight's game vs the Bulls was the worst of the season for Hunter and he did not show the improvements that he had made throughout the year. Hunter can be a useful player, but he showed against the Bulls how unreliable he can be. It is not fair to base everything on one game, but Hunter was horrible in every way vs the Bulls.
Saddiq Bey is going to be a restricted free agent and Atlanta must decide what they are going to do with him. Bey was solid before his injury, but it is unknown when he could even be back after tearing his ACL.
I think Atlanta will want to keep Kobe Bufkin and Mouhamed Gueye going into their second years, as both have shown they have the skillsets needed to be impact players and I would be shocked if Atlanta dealt either one of them. AJ Griffin is someone the Hawks need to decide about for the future as well. It looked like he would be a huge part of the team last year, but was barely a part of the rotation this year before being sent to the G-League and then getting injured. His name was floated in trade talks before.
All in all, this is going to be a critical offseason for the Hawks. What they do this offseason is going to show what direction they want to go in for the future.
