If Atlanta Defeats Chicago, Should They Want To Play Philadelphia or Miami In The Next Play-In Game?

The Atlanta Hawks find themselves in all too familiar territory entering tomorrow's play-in tournament game vs the Chicago Bulls. After making the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, Atlanta has been in the play-in tournament three years in a row. They are 3-0 in the play-in tournament but have lost both first-round series after winning those games. They had hoped this year would be different, but the Hawks find themselves needing to win two games to get in the playoffs and face the Boston Celtics in the first round. 

Their first opponent in that quest is going to be the Chicago Bulls, who the Hawks are 1-2 against this year, but did win in the most recent matchup in Chicago. Atlanta will come into the game missing Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, and Saddiq Bey, meaning they will have to get production from others if they hope to advance. 

If they do advance past the Bulls on Wednesday night (A big if), who would the Hawks matchup better with in the next play-in game? The Miami Heat or the Philadelphia 76ers?

Let me start by saying that either team would be a big problem for Atlanta. The 76ers have been playing fantastic since Joel Embiid has returned to the lineup and one could make the argument that they might be the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference. Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris would be tough covers for Atlanta and the game would be in Philadelphia. It is not impossible that the Hawks could beat the 76ers, but that is the toughest matchup for them if they were to beat Chicago. 

That does not mean that the Miami Heat would be an easy matchup by any means, but I think the Hawks would rather play them if it came down to it. 

First, the Heat have more injury questions than Philadelphia. Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, and Kevin Love are all injured right now and it is uncertain whether they will play vs Philadelphia. If they don't, that would hinder the Heat significantly in that matchup on Wednesday. They would have to rely heavily on Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro to carry the offense, which has not been among the NBA's best this season. Atlanta could have opportunities to score by picking on Herro in pick-and-roll matchups and forcing him and Rozier both to defend. 

Now, it is possible those guys all play for the game vs the 76ers on Wednesday and if they lose, would all be available for a game vs the Hawks on Friday. That would make a huge difference in the game of course and would make the Heat an even tougher opponent. 

Let's not forget though that the Hawks beat Miami in the play-in last year and Miami would go on to make the NBA Finals, but Atlanta was healthier for that game. 

First things first, Atlanta needs to find a way to beat the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday, something that has been hard for them to do. Then, they can worry about either the Heat or the 76ers. Looking ahead though, the Hawks might find a matchup against Miami a little easier than one they would have against Embiid and Philadelphia. 

Let's see what Wednesday brings.