Will Bryce McGowens See Significant Time in Charlotte This Season?
Bryce McGowens was selected with the 40th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft by the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte traded the 45th pick, plus one of the four second rounders they received in the Duren trade to move up to 40th to secure McGowens. Hornets' GM Mitch Kupchak indicated on draft night how surprised the team was that he was falling so far in the draft saying, "We had him rated much higher and you know we scrambled to move up in the draft to take him." He seemed extremely pleased with the pick back in June, and McGowens has proved him right thus far.
The rookie guard had an up-and-down freshman season in Lincoln, averaging 16.8 points per game while playing just over 33 minutes. He was relied upon heavily on offense in his lone collegiate season, ultimately turning in a 27.2 usage percentage and shooting just over 40% from the field. He shot 27% from three at Nebraska which brought major questions about his potential as a floor spacer at the NBA level. You often saw McGowens force shots on offense and really try to get into the lane when there wasn't any room to do so. Defenses were able to key in on him and force others to try and beat them. This drove some of his inefficiencies on offense and as a result led to some pessimism about how he would translate to the professional level. Would he be able to adapt and play more off-ball? Would he be able to cut back on his forced shots and hunt better looks for both he and his teammates? McGowens began to answer some of those questions in a positive fashion during Summer League. We'll take a look at all facets of his game in the third edition of our Summer League recap series.
Let's start with his three-point shot. As mentioned previously 27% from deep on almost five attempts per game in college was extremely concerning, but some of that could be explained by the situation he found himself in. A quick reminder that everything displayed in just over a week in Vegas must be taken with a grain of salt as the sample size is extremely small, but McGowens showed a much better shot during the five games. He shot 43% from beyond the arc on over five attempts per game. The shot mechanics looked really smooth, and he was able to knock down both on and off-ball shots. He did a really good job of finding open spots on the perimeter to set up and wait for a teammate to get it to him. The rookie guard was also able to create some good looks off the bounce and running in and out of screens. He flashed a multitude of ways to get his shot off and was extremely efficient in doing so.
One aspect that should be highlighted was his effectiveness at getting good looks off the dribble. This is one of the more challenging skills to develop for young players, so being able to showcase this so early is such a good thing for the Hornets. One of the key skills missing on Charlotte's roster is having a guy with the ability to break down his defender with dribble moves and pull up from both two and three. They have players who can spot up and hit open looks, players who can run off screens and shoot off movement, and an All-star guard who can break down the defense and create for others but tough, self-creation jumpers are rare for the team. This becomes extremely important in crunch time of close games and especially in the playoffs. McGowens had a few possessions in Summer League where he dazzled with some flashly dribble sequences and then hit contested step-back jumpers. You saw some beautiful hop-steps mixed with an impressive handle. Continuing to develop this on-ball self creation could see him finding his way onto the court for the Hornets quickly.
During his lone season at Nebraska, McGowens fielded a higher turnover than assist percentage. This is something you really don't want to see, especially for a guard who looks to have the ball in his hands often. He committed 65 turnovers compared to just 43 assists in college but again some of that could be contributed to his situation and the thought that he had to make something out of nothing each time down the court. He really shouldn't need to feel like that on the Hornets' roster and if he ends up sharing the backcourt with LaMelo Ball, he won't have the ball in his hands constantly. These factors alone should contribute to a lower turnover percentage, but improving his handle and passing reads would help as well.
In Las Vegas, Bryce averaged 2.6 assists per game while committing a total of 13 turnovers. A one-to-one assist to turnover ratio is not terrible by any means, but you would like for that to improve for a guard with his potential. Given the struggles of Jalen Crutcher and the lack of playmaking options on the Summer League roster, McGowens had the ball in his hands often and was asked to make plays for himself and others. You could see him falling into old habits as he committed a few more turnovers than you would be comfortable with. A positive spin on this however would be that it gives him the chance to make mistakes and see what works against NBA level defenders. That way when he gets into the game during the NBA regular season in Charlotte, he should have a better understanding of how he can attack defenses. A platform to experiment with different passing reads and driving angles with the low stakes that Summer League provides could aid the rookie guard during play that really matters. You often see young guards have a high turnover count early in their career as they adjust to the professional game, and the chances to make these mistakes early should give him a better overall understanding of how to develop his offensive game.
When looking at the big picture, McGowens should be looking to improve his playmaking. He has already demonstrated the skill to get his own shot off the bounce but setting up teammates for open shots should be a skill he is looking to develop. Since he signed a two-way contract with the team, playing alongside Kai Jones in Greensboro should help him with his passing. Getting reps in pick-and-rolls with a strong finisher and lob threat will help him with his passing reads and confidence in that area. If James Bouknight also sees time in Greensboro this season, he and Bryce will be the primary ball-handlers for the team so they both should receive a plethora of opportunities to increase their play-making skills. When playing with the Hornets, McGowens will spend most of his offensive possessions off-ball so he will have time to work this out, but any improvement will be huge for Charlotte.
One thing the Hornets were sure they had in their rookie guard was the ability to get to the free throw line. He boasted an extremely impressive .491 free throw rate at Nebraska per sports-reference.com. This references how many free throws he attempted per field goal attempt. This ratio is outstanding and really highlights how effectively he can put pressure on defenses and attack the basket. For comparison, Ja Morant had a .479 free throw rate during his freshman season at Murray State. We have already seen Morant's rim pressure translate to the NBA at a very high level so there is precedent for drawing fouls effectively in college leading to success doing so in the pros. This is an area the Hornets can really use help in and was probably one of the main reasons they traded up to make sure they got him. Not only was he getting to the line frequently, but he knocked down his attempts at a 83% rate.
McGowens displayed his rim pressure during Summer League early and often, but for the most part he struggled to finish once he got into the paint. He does currently have a thin frame, so once he adds muscle and continues to get reps finishing against NBA defenders, he should improve. He wasn't the best athlete in Vegas, but is not a bad one by any means so this will not hold him back. What he lacks in explosiveness, he makes up for with change of pace and crafty ball-handling. He had some very impressive, athletic finishes, but he often looked bothered when challenged. He wasn't able to finish through stronger defenders and had his shot blocked too often.
The good news is that his struggles at the rim did not seem to frustrate him as he attacked relentlessly from start to finish of each game. Confidence should not be an issue, but he does need to develop a better understanding of when he has the angle to drive and when to keep the ball moving. Continuing the pace of averaging a free throw attempt for every two field goals is not very realistic in the NBA, but that rim pressure and ability to get to the line could prove to be as valuable a skill as any for the Charlotte Hornets.
The re-hire of head coach Steve Clifford should signal the commitment of the organization to improve defensively. If McGowens is going to get playing time over guys like Cody Martin, then he is going to need to show that effort and ability to defend to earn the trust of Clifford and the coaching staff. If you combine the fact that he is already 6-7 with the idea that he will add strength in a professional weight room, he has potential on that end. He hasn't shown the quickest of feet on defense thus far in his basketball career, but he has always been asked to carry a tremendous load on offense. Having a coach that will constantly get on him about his defense and carrying less of an offensive burden could unlock this important part of his game. Defense is about intensity and focus more than anything so if the desire is there, the strong defense could be as well.
As a point of attack defender, he needs to learn to move his feet better to avoid getting blown by. He tends to play defense with his hands and arms more than sliding with the offensive player to stay in front. Too often you see him getting beat on the angle and then just attempting to reach around and poke the ball loose with his long arms. He had only one steal during the five Summer League games so this strategy wasn't too effective for him thus far. He showed flashes in college of being able to absorb contact from bigger players and still have a strong contest on the shot, but it is still unknown how he will manage against NBA players. Off-ball, he tends to ball watch a little too much and can be beaten on back side dives.
As mentioned earlier, Steve Clifford is going to demand a higher level of intensity on defense from all of his players. This might help McGowens as he has always been the offensive hub of his team thus far. Defense is not necessarily always stressed as much to these guys, so it might be really good for him to be able to focus on improving on that side of the court early on in his career. He has the length and size to be a strong point of attack defender, he just needs to match that with strength and attention to detail. If he can do that, heavy rotation minutes might not be too far away for the talented guard.
Bryce McGowens already has so much to work with as a NBA prospect. At this point, his offense is much further along than his defense. His rim pressure and effectiveness at drawing fouls combined with the on-ball creation we have seen from him make him a dangerous offensive weapon. He will need to improve his finishing at the basket in order to keep the pressure on NBA defenses. Continuing to work on the shot both as a spot up shooter and off the dribble is a must as that will force defenses to honor that piece of his game and allow for more space to drive. Seeing the floor at a higher level will have to come with time and making stronger passing reads is a key area of focus to become a more complete guard. Shoring up his on-ball defensive technique as well as upping the focus off-ball should help his defensive game catch up to his offense. Proving to Steve Clifford that he can be trusted on defense is a must if he wishes to see significant playing time for the Charlotte Hornets.
If you missed our previous editions click here for the piece on JT Thor, and here for a Mark Williams deep dive.
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