Predicting if Jazz 2024 First-Round Pick Conveys This Season
The outlook of the 2023-24 season for the Utah Jazz is trending in the wrong direction. Utah is 0-4 since making the trade deadline deals that saw Kelly Olynyk, Simone Fontecchio, and Ochai Agbaji leave Salt Lake City.
So, despite Utah fading out of the playoff conversation, there’s still a reason for Jazz fans to keep a close eye on the standings. The Oklahoma City Thunder are in possession of Utah’s first-round pick, and it should go down to the wire on who is awarded the selection at season's end.
Is this why Utah’s front office gave up three rotational pieces for two late draft picks? If the Jazz land in the bottom 10, then the pick gets pushed into 2025 with the same top-10 protection. In 2026, the selection becomes top-8 protected if it’s still not paid off.
Another caveat to consider is if Utah doesn't convey the pick in either 2024 or 2025, then there's a possibility that Utah would lose its rights to the pick swaps with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026. For this to occur, the Jazz would have to be placed between 9 and 30 in 2026 and not convey the pick two years prior.
Jazz general manager Justin Zanik did make it clear last week that Utah isn’t tanking to keep the pick. Whether that’s true is up for debate, but these are his remarks in last week's press conference.
“We had a few things happened to us, we took our shots, it didn’t work out, but at the end of the day, we haven’t been out of the second round since 2007, so the goal isn’t to make a Play-In, don’t make a Play-In, keep your pick, don’t keep your pick. Those aren’t the goals.
If the season were to end today, the Jazz would be conveying their pick, but by a razor-thin margin. Utah is only one game removed from keeping the pick at the ten-spot but also 2.5 from qualifying for the play-in tournament.
The teams to keep an eye on moving forward are the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, and Houston Rockets. It’s worth noting that the Jazz were the only team that made exchanges that hindered their 2023-24 outlook. In other words, unlike Utah, these teams are putting their best foot forward.
If you believe in analytics, then the pick is pacing to be in the Thunder’s possession at year’s end. ESPN’s Power Index is still projecting the Jazz to win 38.1 games at season's end. This would put Utah at the No. 12 spot and ahead of the Bulls, Rockets, Nets, and Hawks.
Interestingly, Utah is projected to have the fourth hardest schedule for the rest of the season, according to Tankathon.com. The Bulls, Rockets, and Hawks schedule difficulty rankings come in at 16,17 and 18, respectively. The Nets have the second easiest schedule remaining, with an opponent winning percentage of 46%
The analytics may have the Jazz finishing the season post-All-Star break at 12-14, but I’m not buying it. Utah has been incredibly fortunate on the injury front as of late, and I'm not so sure this is going to hold up.
Collin Sexton hasn’t missed a game this season, Lauri Markkanen has played in 31 straight games, and Jordan Clarkson has played in 27 games consecutively. I’m not sure how long the Jazz can continue to avoid the injury bug, but as Utah continues to slip out of the playoff picture, I’m anticipating starters to start popping up on the injury report.
Also, prior to the trade deadline, the Jazz were one of the deepest teams in the league. This is no longer the case. Utah currently ranks second in bench scoring, but expect those numbers to take a dive with Walker Kessler and Keyonte George being inserted in the starting lineup as a result of Utah’s deadline deals.
Utah did show some grit in its last game against the Golden State Warriors, but the deck will be stacked against them the rest of the way. The way I see it, the Thunder will need to wait another year before cashing in on Utah’s first-round selection.
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