Jazz Postseason Odds Revealed by Analytics

The Utah Jazz are still somewhat flying under the radar despite winning 14 of their last 18 games, but don’t tell that to the analytics. ESPN’s Power Index model is now giving Utah a 39.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 12.8% shot of making it to the second round. ESPN’s analytics team is also projecting Utah to win 41 games this season.

The analytics are currently giving Utah more respect than the oddsmakers. Prior to the win versus the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night, FanDuel had Utah winning 36.5 games.

The one variable that the analytics can’t foresee is potential trades. There’s still the possibility that Jazz CEO Danny Ainge could pull out the rug from under the 2023-24 season with a trade deadline deal.

Jazz fans may recall that last year, Mike Conley, Malik Beasly, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were shipped off before last year's All-Star break. Utah received no help in the current year in return and finished the season 10-17. The Jazz ended up missing the play-in tournament by two games.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 season, and Utah could face a similar fate. Utah has a handful of players who will be unrestricted free agents this summer, and Ainge faces a tough decision.

Utah could stay the course and give its core needed experience in games that mean something or unload the expiring contracts for future draft compensation. The players that could be up for bid are Kelly Olynyk, Kris Dunn, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Simone Fontecchio.

Utah has one of the deepest teams in the league, and unloading players like last season for future draft picks would all but seal Utah’s fate of making some noise in the postseason. That said, the players that have the expiring contracts won’t bring back much in return by themselves.

If Utah wants any type of worthwhile return, then Jordan Clarkson or Collin Sexton would need to be part of a trade. That seemed likely just a few weeks ago. Prior to Utah’s hot streak, it felt like Clarkson and Sexton couldn’t coexist on the same team, but that’s not the case now. Sexton could very well be Utah’s starting shooting guard of the future, and Clarkson appears to be comfortable as the spark plug coming off the bench.

Jazz fans will have to wait and see what Ainge’s plan is, with the trade deadline being a little over three weeks away.

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