Keep or Cut: Damyean Dotson
Damyean Dotson has been arguably the most consistent Knick over the last three seasons.
His competition for that title? Frank Ntilikina, and that's it. Yes, Ntilikina and Dotson are the last two players left on the roster that knew what Jeff Hornacek looked like pacing the Madison Square Garden sidelines, what Kristaps Porzingis looked like in orange and blue and what 30 wins feels like.
Still, even judged by normal standards, Dotson has been very consistent with the Knicks. Take a look at his per-36 numbers for the first three seasons of his career, which is an imperfect measure, but one that does a decent job capturing a player's per-minute success:
Damyean Dotson's per-36 numbers for his first three years in the NBA.
Basketball-Reference
What picture do those stats paint? Probably one of a player who can be a decent role player in the NBA, the seventh or eighth man for a team that's actually decent; maybe a ninth or 10th man for a team that really has something to play for.
And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that! Every NBA team needs players like Dotson — the Lakers have Alex Caruso, the Clippers have Rodney McGruder, the Bucks have Pat Connaughton, and so on and so forth; Role players that can primarily come off the bench and provide reliable, generally mistake-free minutes.
As a matter of fact, limiting Dotson's role in the offense to that of basically a spot-up player that can very occasionally run a pick-and-roll might be the best.
Damyean Dotson's 2019-20 shot types and percentages
NBA.com/stats
Damyean Dotson's 2018-19 shot types and percentages
NBA.com/stats
Dotson managed to actually improve his spot-up 3-point percentage this year, albeit in less minutes and on less volume. Meanwhile, he increased his pull-up three frequency from 10.9% of the time to 18.3% of the time, and lost almost five points off of his 3-point percentage in the process.
That said, even if he relied a little too much on the pull-up this year, when properly utilized he absolutely has the ability to be an impact 3-and-D role player in the modern NBA. His shot profile is that of someone that basically exists to shoot threes and cut inside for easy buckets.
Damyean Dotson's 2019-20 shooting percentages by location.
Basketball-Reference
Damyean Dotson's 2019-20 shot chart.
Basketball-Reference
So then comes the question of value... What is Dotson worth?
Tin foil hat on, it almost seemed as if the Knicks were looking to suppress Dotson's value this year to lessen the cap hit of his second contract. Nobody on the team was immune to being hastily inserted and removed from the rotation with seemingly no notice, but Dotson's usage was particularly mind-boggling given his production.
For example, Dotson played 22.6 minutes per game over an eight-game stretch from Jan. 20 to Feb. 3. During that time, he shot .532/.541/.750 with averages of 11.5 points, two rebounds and 0.8 steals per game. That's great production off the bench! The Knicks also managed to go 4-4 during that stretch.
Basketball-Reference
After that stretch, arguably Dotson's best of the season? He'd play in only four of the next 15 games to (presumably) close out the season. All told, Dotson was ostensibly healthy the entire season and wound up only playing in 48 of the Knicks' 66 total games.
So out of the possible explanations, it seems (unfortunately) kind of likely that the team may have been trying to sabotage his value on the open market. Is it possible he was sat for not playing well? I mean, not really, considering the stretch shown above somehow led to him barely playing to close the season. Is it possible the team sat him just because they already know what they have in him, but wanted to see what other guys on the team had to offer? Also unlikely, considering the guys taking Dotson's minutes were proven NBA vets Wayne Ellington and Reggie Bullock, both of whom actually had down years by comparison to the rest of their careers.
If the value suppression worked? The Knicks could be in a good position to get Dotson on an affordable second deal. Even if it didn't and some team throws a big(ish) offer sheet at him, the Knicks will have the right to match with Dotson entering the market as a restricted free agent.
I'll be diving in further in a piece coming soon, but I believe the right price for Dotson is something like a three-year, $15.76 million contract. Or, maybe given the unknown status of the salary cap going forward due to the COVID-19 crisis, I should just say, "Somewhere around 5% of the salary cap." Dotson has proven that he can be a consistent 3-and-D guy off the bench, and maybe once the Knicks are paying him like one, they'll finally give him the consistent playing time that he's earned over his first three years.
Keep or Cut: Keep, easily.
