Why This Probable New Orleans Pelicans Decision Should Worry Lakers Fans

The Pelicans are betting against the future of the Lakers.

The blockbuster trade that the Los Angeles Lakers made for then-New Orleans Pelicans All-Star center Anthony Davis back in 2019 involved several draft picks over the past few years, with the latest and final one being a choice for New Orleans between LA's 2024 and 2025 first-rounders.

The Pelicans are reportedly nearing a decision to choose LA's 2025 first-round pick as opposed to their 2024 one, which can be interpreted as a problem for the Lakers.

New Orleans is seemingly convinced that LA is set to be worse in the 2024-2025 season than they've been this year, which is a low bar to be worse than given their seeding. Predicting LA to regress implies them being a possible lottery team – a cataclysmic outcome.

In breaking down what could cause this regression, you can point to a few factors, with the first being the potential departure of LeBron James. His player option this offseason offers him the ability to leave the team if he chooses.

With his son Bronny entering the NBA Draft, and LeBron being highly vocal about wanting to play with him, there's a genuine chance of his departure.

As the league conducts its chatter, it's possible New Orleans is convinced that LeBron is on the way out, which would be intriguing given their announcement of deferring the pick being right after Bronny's declaration for the draft.

Health is another issue, as LeBron James and Anthony Davis have both had some of the healthier seasons in recent memory.

Neither suffered any ailment that has kept them out more than a couple of games at a time and statistically speaking, one or both is bound to miss some more time next season.

The final factor to look to is an increasingly competitive Western Conference. With such a high bar to clear (nearly 50 wins) to even be granted the 8th seed, the conference has reached historic heights.

An injury-ridden season for the Memphis Grizzlies and a strong upward arrow for the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are other factors to consider, making the West even more of a bloodbath next season.

If the Lakers deal with injuries, age-driven regression, or any sort of related issue, they may fall out of the top 10 altogether, well-positioning them for a lottery pick that New Orleans wants.

The notion that LA could utilize their first-rounder this year in a trade package for a star player like Donovan Mitchell or Trae Young is the silver lining for LA, but, as fans, we can only speculate.

On the contrary, New Orleans is a well-run NBA front office that has access to insider information and has concluded that they'd rather take their chances on next year's pick, suggesting that they don't believe that LA can pull off a blockbuster move of that magnitude.

If they believed LA could make a deal like that, they'd instead take opt for the 2024 first-rounder, which weakens LA's potential trade package, killing two birds with one stone for their conference rival.

Another factor worth considering is how weak the 2024 draft class is, especially in comparison to the 2025 draft class. From the Pelicans' perspective, they may just prefer the 2025 pick from a scouting standpoint, but it's clear the driver of their decision is the belief that LA will regress next season.

This is confirmed in that if LA is any better than the 9th/10th seed next season, their pick would be worse, and a 5-7 spot drop-off in the draft order is a noticeable difference, regardless of draft class quality.

The Pelicans have also made a jump as a team, being only a piece or two away from true contenders. Working on such thin margins, they wouldn't make a decision like this without serious confidence.

New Orleans has until June to finalize their decision here, so if LA ends up in the lottery with a decent pick, the Pelicans could turn around and ask for it.

However, if the Lakers remain in their projected spot (mid-teens), the Pels appear convinced that LA is going to end up picking higher than that next season, which should inspire no confidence in Lakers fans.