Judging Josh Richardson's Value After Historic Debut
New Orleans, La.- The New Orleans Pelicans were relatively patient leading up to the NBA's trade deadline. The front office made only one move, swapping Devonte' Graham and four future second-round picks for Josh Richardson. The trade is already paying off for the Pelicans in a tight playoff race.
The newest to head coach Willie Green's rotations finished Monday's 103-100 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder with 10 points, two rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and five steals in a team-leading 34 minutes. The victory kept the Pelicans in 7th place and just one game back for the fourth-placed Phoenix Suns.
It was just a one-game sample size but the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent fit in immediately. Brandon Ingram shared, “J-Rich gave us a lot of stuff on the defensive end. He came from San Antonio. He has some stuff where we can learn from him. Him being on really, really good teams where he can do different stuff on the floor.”
Feb 13, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Josh Richardson (2) drives around Oklahoma City Thunder guard Aaron Wiggins (21) during the second half at Paycom Center. New Orleans won 103-100. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Green agreed, replying during the postgame press conference, “J-Rich was good. You could see his veteran savviness on the floor. Makes great decisions defensively. I thought he changed the game with steal after steal. That’s part of what we wanted when we acquired him.”
Being traded away by the San Antonio Spurs was no surprise for Richardson. Joining the Pelicans was, however. New Orleans needed the jolt though, and the well-traveled veteran appreciates the chance to get more postseason experience.
“I was pretty sure I was going to get moved somewhere. To be honest, New Orleans hadn’t come up one time. When I got a call about it, I was excited. This was always a team that was always a tough matchup...It’s a little different look. I personally am happy to be able to play in these situations and be able to have that little bit of pressure on us. It’s always fun.”
Getting to debut for a new team near his childhood home was an unforgettable experience. He shared after the stellar performance, “I remember when I was a kid, I was at the very top row of the arena bringing binoculars to the game. Being able to run out of that tunnel and look up there is always kind of surreal to me."
Feb 13, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Josh Richardson (2) reaches for a loose ball in front of Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) and guard Josh Giddey (3) during the second half at Paycom Center. New Orleans won 103-100. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Judging Trades, Gauging Values
There are multiple reports that the Pelicans plan to try and keep Richardson in town for a few more seasons. Ownership judges the front office on trade grades and contract values just as much as fans when it comes to contract extensions, which are coming up soon for Executive Vice President David Griffin.
So what are the parameters for judging if Richardson was worth the four future second-round picks and Graham's expiring contract?
Those picks can be sold for around $1.5-3 million each during the draft. Graham might not have been a factor in a playoff series but his salary could have been used in a different trade this summer. Richardson can help win a series but will likely get at least one offer to match his current $12.1 million deal, if not more.
This is the most average-annual value in his career and also the last chance for the 29-year-old to cash in on a big deal. A four-year, $44 million deal with Miami was followed by one-year deals worth between $7-9 million. If that was the market during his prime, would Richardson give the Pelicans a slight discount after a playoff run?
All championship contenders need a veteran presence, especially when built around young All-Stars who've not yet hit their prime years. Green said after just one game of coaching Richardson, "You know you can put him on the floor in late-game situations. He knows how to execute."
Richardson, a second-round pick out of Tennessee in 2015, is another four-year SEC alum with a defensive mindset. The former Volunteer has better three-point averages than both Graham and Herb Jones, who will have a bit more help corraling the opposition's best players this postseason.
So, brass tacks, what's the price range in a negotiation? On a team battling the injury bug, Richardson's versatility on both ends of the floor will help Green's at-times patchwork rotations.
The Pelicans have a bit more room to operate under the luxury tax by shedding Graham's salary. New Orleans can trim down to $151.5 million in cap holds. They'd be over the cap by almost $20 million but would have just over $11 million to spend under the luxury tax line before accounting for any potential first-round draft picks.
Feb 13, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) passes the ball against New Orleans Pelicans guard Josh Richardson (2) during the second half at Paycom Center. New Orleans won 103-100. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Richardson will get pitches from several contenders this summer considering the available free agents. The Mid-Level Exception for teams under the tax starts at $11.3 million. Taxpaying teams can offer just over $7 million while teams with cap space only have a $5 million exception to use.
Would the Pelicans offer a four-year, $48 million deal with only a 25-game regular season sample size? How much could a big playoff series affect a new deal? The Solomon Hill contract still haunts some fans.
The team could sell Richardson on a two- or three-year deal worth a little less than $10 million. A good run with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram would allow Richardson the chance at a bit more security going into the mid-30s. If another All-Star becomes available, one worth paying a luxury tax, then Richardson is also a great trade asset.
There likely would not have been room for the second-round draft picks on the roster. Graham's defense would have been exposed in the playoffs. In the short-term, the Richardson trade is a win just based on how much easier he makes the game for everyone involved.
Long-term? Paying that much to effectively rent a playoff contributor for 25-40 games is fine. Just don't get stuck with a bad contract going forward. The window for winning while avoiding the luxury tax is shrinking enough as it is.
