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Pelicans Playing Out The Season As Underdogs

The New Orleans Pelicans close out the regular season against seven teams that currently have a better record.

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New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans

NEW ORLEANS- The New Orleans Pelicans sitting at the top of the standings at the start of the 2022 fall holiday season. It was a long winter once Brandon Ingram (Black Friday) and Zion Williamson (Day After New Year) went down. Willie Green could just watch as his short-handed squad fell down the standings and into the middle of the play-in pack.

Now the team is riding a five-game winning streak and is just a half-game behind the sixth seed. New Orleans is just two games back of the currently fourth Phoenix Suns (40-35) but the Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will be stuck playing as underdogs for the rest of the regular season.

These Pelicans will not be sneaking up on anyone after last season's run through two elimination battles and a six-game slugfest with Phoenix. Last year they were playing with house money as Zion Williamson was out and the CJ-B.I. pairing was unproven. This year is different. This locker room agreed to a new standard and set higher expectations.

Zion Williamson

To summarize what several players and coach Willie Green have expressed all season: It's hard to play with an underdog mentality when you expect to be there in the first place. Well, that's exactly what this team will be the rest of the season, barring injuries and load management decisions. Just look at the schedule.

  • 3/28: @ Golden State Warriors (39-37)
  • 3/30: @ Denver Nuggets (51-24)
  • 4/1: vs. LA Clippers (40-36)
  • 4/4: vs. Sacramento Kings (45-30)
  • 4/5: vs. Memphis Grizzlies (47-27)
  • 4/7: vs. New York Knicks (43-33)
  • 4/9: @ Minnesota Timberwolves (39-37)

Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are 30-8 at home this season. The defending champs are rounding into form and fighting to stay above the play-in fray. Draymond Green is already angling for playoff series against the Sacramento Kings, who are practically locked into third. 

The Warriors need a win to jump back into 6th place. The Pelicans will be playing the second half of a back-to-back set and their third road game in four days. Then comes a trip to Denver, which needs a few more wins to secure the top seed and the MVP trophy for Nikola Jokic. Unless the two-time reigning MVP rests, Denver will be heavily favored.

The Clippers might be without Paul George but Kawhi Leonard has been locked in lately. Well, except when guarded by Herb Jones. The Kings and Grizzlies are separated by 2.5 games (as of March 28). Both will have plenty of reasons to play at full-strength next week.

Herb Jones on LeBron James

Josh Hart once again visits the Smoothie King Center, this time with the Knicks. New York is battling to keep the fifth spot so they get the upstart Cleveland Cavaliers and not Joel Embiid's Philadelphia 76ers in the first round. 

The Pelicans might have a better record before their trip to face the Timberwolves to wrap up the regular season, but they'll still be underdogs. FiveThirtyEight only gives New Orleans credit for two more wins for the rest of the season.

Finding Ways To Win, Wind Up In Sixth

That regular-season finale trip might mean more for the Pelicans than the Timberwolves, which has the fifth-easiest remaining schedule. Minnesota only has six games remaining and three are against lottery-bound teams. They'll face the Spurs, Trail Blazers, and Lakers before welcoming New Orleans to town.

Golden State also has the Spurs and Trail Blazers remaining. Sacramento might have their spot locked up before their April 7 tilt but Oklahoma City is in a position to battle until the bitter end. Sitting with one fewer win on March 28, it is hard to see the Pelicans catching up to the Warriors if the Pelicans lose on March 28.

Looking at the other teams battling for playoff positioning, the Lakers have only two home games left but they have one 'road' game against the Clippers. LeBron James finishes out the year with dates against Chicago, Houston, and a two-game home-and-away set with Utah.  

The Clippers have the sixth-toughest schedule remaining. They will play two games in three days against Memphis before coming to New Orleans. LA finishes out the season versus the Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Suns. Only Portland is looking forward to the NBA Draft.

For the sake of argument, let's assume the Warriors and Nuggets beat the Pelicans this week. If New Orleans, with the toughest remaining slate, only has two wins left according to projections, beating the Clippers gives the Pelicans the head-to-head tiebreaker. The loyal fans will know what is at stake. 

Brandon Ingram

The Beat LA chants will be loud in the Smoothie King Center. However, this locker room has every reason to believe it can win every home game on deck. Ingram, McCollum, and Murphy III have already carved up the Clippers a few times going back to last postseason. LA comes to New Orleans a night after playing in Memphis. Kawhi could rest in the second game in two nights.

Memphis also will be on the second night of a back-to-back set when they visit the Big Easy. The Grizzlies also have five games before facing the Pelicans and could have the second seed locked up. Resting players before a playoff series makes perfect sense. The Pelicans would just have to take advantage.

New Orleans also needs to take out some revenge on the Kings, who beat New Orleans three weeks ago despite playing without De'Aaron Fox. The Kings play Portland twice and the Spurs next week. Perhaps they will not need the win as much as New Orleans, but as a young team still trying to establish a reputation, it is doubtful they rest all of their starters.

The Pelicans cannot count on any team taking a night off over the next two weeks. They can start looking at magic numbers and finish lines. Just two more wins all but secures a play-in spot but not necessarily another home game. Three wins and they'll at least get to play an elimination game at home.

Four wins gets Ingram and Co. in the conversation for the fifth or sixth seed going into that season finale in Minnesota. All they need to do to get there is protect the Smoothie King Center court.

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