Siakam on the Cheap?
The longer this NBA work stoppage goes the more upset Pascal Siakam should be.
Not only is the 27-year-old All Star being deprived of valuable experience as the Raptors No. 1 scoring option down the stretch and potentially in the playoffs, but as the NBA continues to haemorrhage money without games being played, Siakam's contract likely becomes lighter and lighter.
The Raptors signed the reigning most improved player to a four-year max contract extension in October that is set to start in 2020-21 as Siakam's rookie deal comes to an end. The new deal is tied to the salary cap for the 2020-21 season with Siakam making 25% of the team's cap space.
Back when the deal was signed the cap was expected to be about $116 million, according to The Athletic's Shams Charania, meaning Siakam would make approximately $29 million in 2020-21.
Those number, however, could be drastically different next season due to the NBA's work stoppage and the revenue the league is expected to lose with the season likely cut short and the playoffs potentially whipped away.
As Blake Murphy reported earlier this week in The Athletic: For every $1 million the cap drops from the prior $115 million estimate, Siakam would stand to lose $250,000 in Year 1 and $1.12 million over the life of the deal. If the cap is $5 million lower than expected, that’s an estimated $5.6-million hit for Siakam.
So the question for Siakam becomes how will the NBA deal with the salary cap and lost revenue.
One option for the league to "smooth" the year over year losses, a decision the league opted not to go for when the salary cap jumped in 2016 from $70 million to $94 million, allowing Golden State to bring in Kevin Durant. The other option is for the players to take the cap hit on the chin and drop the salary cap for just next season. If the league goes for this option, Siakam could take a major financial hit next season.
Aside from Siakam, the Raptors have three other major contributors heading toward free agency this year including Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol.
A major cap fall could give the 26-year-old VanVleet another opportunity to "bet on yourself," as his motto says. Instead of taking a long-term deal, it might be wise for the once undrafted guard to resign in Toronto on a one year and test the market in 2021 when the cap should rebound.
Both Ibaka and Gasol are likely facing the last significant paydays of their careers and like VanVleet, a lower cap could make either of the Raptors bigs more likely to resign a short term deal in Toronto where they seem to have grown comfortable.
Ultimately, all salary cap questions can't really be answered until the league decides what to do with the remainder of the season and it's determined what next year's cap will look like. Then, Masai Ujiri, Bobby Webster and company will sit down and start plotting out how to allocate the remaining funds.
