Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports
Raptors Can't Get Lucky, Staying Put at 13th Pick in NBA Draft Lottery
Masai Ujiri was right the first time.
“Play-in for what?” the Toronto Raptors president and vice-chairman famously asked following the disastrous 2020-21 NBA season. Back then, Toronto had made the soon-to-be fortuitous decision to avoid the play-in tournament, turn their attention toward the NBA Draft Lottery, and, as Ujiri later put it, embark on the “Tampa tank.”
The result?
The seventh-best draft lottery odds in 2021 and eventually the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.
This time around, Ujiri’s decision proved costly. Toronto took a different path at the trade deadline, adding to a lackluster group instead of pivoting toward a tank. It earned the Raptors an embarrassing play-in loss at home to the Chicago Bulls and, on Tuesday, the No. 13 pick in the NBA Draft.
The Raptors came into the draft lottery with just a 1% chance to land the No. 1 pick and the superstar French prospect Victor Wembanyama. Even the more realistic 4.88% chance that Toronto would move into the top four were, well, the second least of anyone in the draft.
Sure, the Basketball Gods could have looked down favorably on Toronto for not tanking, but, truthfully, the Raptors deserved their fate. That’s what happens when you finish 41-41.
It’s hard to say what would have happened had Toronto actively tried to go in the other direction. Resting Pascal Siakam down the stretch as he endeavored to earn All-NBA honors was always unrealistic. Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. likely wouldn’t have been happy taking it easy ahead of their own free agency and O.G. Anunoby was striving for his first relatively complete season.
All that said, the Raptors were sort of a house of cards this season. They had a -2.4 Net Rating, 22nd in the league, per PBP Stats, when they had just three starters on the court together and they were even worse with just one or two starters on the court.
Consider what would have happened had they traded one or two of their starters at the trade deadline and not acquired Jakob Poeltl. It’s not unrealistic that Toronto’s 15-11 record following the trade deadline could have been significantly worse. Make that 9-17 and suddenly the Raptors come into Tuesday night with an almost 30% chance to move into the top four. Add a couple more losses and it’s possible the Raptors are looking at a 40% chance at a top-four pick.
Regardless of the results, it was Toronto’s progress that was flawed. The organization opted to be patient at the deadline instead of making the kind of move that earned the Raptors Scottie Barnes just two years ago.
They made their luck last time around.
This time, the Raptors have nobody to blame but themselves.
Further Reading
Here's what to know as Raptors enter NBA Draft Lottery with 13th-best odds
Monty Williams fits the bill as the 'culture' coach the Raptors are looking for
Pascal Siakam falls short of All-NBA honors as contract extension questions loom
