Raptors Head to Crossroads With Injuries Piling Up
It’s about to get ugly.
All season the Toronto Raptors have staved off the urge to tank. They’ve been adamant that this is crucial development time and considering they owe a top-six protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs there hasn’t really been a great reason to tank. But with Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl out indefinitely, Toronto may have no choice.
Of Toronto’s final 20 games, only three will come against teams worse than the Raptors with two more against the equally bad Brooklyn Nets. The other 15 games are all against teams in the play-in picture and the Raptors can expect to be heavy underdogs in essentially all of those games.
That matters because the Raptors sit just two games back of the Memphis Grizzlies for the sixth-worst record in the NBA and what would be a 45.8% chance to keep their top-six protected pick.
Anything higher than that is essentially out of the question as Toronto sits five games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for what would be the fifth-worst record in the NBA.
Considering Memphis has a slightly easier schedule, maybe it’s manageable for Toronto to eclipse the Grizzlies. Memphis plays six games against teams in the bottom four in the overall standings and has another game against the Atlanta Hawks ahead. A few fluke wins could thrust the Grizzlies ahead of Toronto in the standings.
But consider what that would say about the Raptors, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Kelly Olynyk, and Gary Trent Jr. if a team with those four players finishes worse than a Grizzlies team whose current rotation is set to earn roughly $29 million this season. For context, Barrett alone will make $23.9 million this season and it’s entirely possible Quickley’s next deal will earn him pretty close to $29 million next season.
If Toronto really is that bad with Quickley and Barrett leading the way, surely that’s an indictment in part on how valuable they are to the organization’s long-term future.
The Raptors are comfortable letting the chip fall where they may.
If they fall below Memphis and increase their lottery odds, maybe that’s helpful. But losing stinks and in a season that’s been about development, it can’t help to truly be that bad.
