What's At Stake For Rockets in NBA Lottery?

What is at stake for the Rockets in Tuesday's NBA Lottery? Sports Illustrated examines

The Houston Rockets are set to enter the NBA Lottery on Tuesday night, with the best odds in the league of landing the No. 1 overall pick.

However, as we have seen in years past, this is not a guarantee. 

The good thing for Houston is that they are guaranteed a top-five pick. And with the pool of players being as deep as it has been in quite some time, it stands to add an exciting talent to its young core, regardless of draft position. 

With that in mind, Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Woo examined what exactly is at stake for the Rockets heading into Tuesday night, and what to expect in terms of draft position.  

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Rockets (20-62)

Chance to win: 14%

Chance of top four pick: 52.1%

What’s at stake: The Rockets enter Year 2 of their rebuild hoping for a prospect that can complement Jalen Green, who was their prize in last year’s draft and a player Houston hopes will be its long-term centerpiece. After another season that didn’t involve very much winning, they again will have the best possible odds at the No. 1 pick. They also hold the No. 17 pick, acquired from Brooklyn in the James Harden trade. The Rockets used all four of their first-rounders in last year’s draft, and there’s not much pressure for them to be good anytime soon, giving them flexibility to pick without over-concerning themselves with positional overlap (as long as whoever they take doesn’t step on Green’s toes). They’re in position to take chances.

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

That said, Houston does have a long-term need at forward and has a fairly good chance to add one of Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren or Paolo Banchero, who have differing skill sets but would potentially all slot in quite well here. They don’t need to win the lottery to walk away pleased with how this shakes out, but it obviously would be a nice coup for the Rockets to have their choice. They’re in a good position to add talent and, unlike last year, they aren’t at risk of sending their first-rounder elsewhere, so the stakes aren’t quite as high this year. The furthest Houston can fall is No. 5 (a 47.9% chance), which would be less than ideal, but not the end of the world.

As a franchise, The Rockets have had great luck with their top-five picks when given the chance, selecting Elvin Hayes, Rudy Tomjanovich, Bobby Jones, John Lucas, Ralph Sampson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Yao Ming, and most recently Jalen Green, with those opportunities. 

Green, who was selected No. 2 in last year's draft behind Cade Cunningham (Pistons), exploded onto the scene in his rookie campaign, averaging 17.3 points and 3.4 rebounds in 31.9 minutes in 67 regular-season games.

Green also ended the year ranked second among all rookie scorers behind only Cunningham (17.4), and hit nearly 43 percent of his shots from the field, including 34 percent from three. 

If the Rockets can find a way to add a similar impact player in the 2022 class, as history suggests they are very capable of doing, they could find themselves in line for a much improved 2022-23 season. 

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