Are Suns Contenders or Pretenders?
PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns are far from a shoe-in as a top contender in the NBA's landscape - at least according to ESPN writer Andre Snellings, who dove into why the organization could miss the postseason.
Snellings begins the piece by pointing out the gap between public perception - where Phoenix is widely seen as a top-five title contender - and the analytics (ESPN BPI says the Suns have a 0.8% chance to secure the title this season).
Snellings then goes into detail as to why the Suns might be a better bet to miss out on the playoffs completely than to secure an NBA title.
Those reasons are as follows:
Over-Reliance on Individual Scorers
The Suns supposedly don't have enough offensive balance to counteract the "top heavy" nature of the squad and other perceived contenders out West have more sustainable brands of basketball that complement their rosters in a better fashion.
"The scoring ability of the individual Suns stars is awesome, but the fit doesn't allow their main players to all produce at their peak in synergy, the way their competition is able to do," Snellings quips.
Lack of Size, Defense, and Floor Generalship
"The other side of the coin when it comes to the Suns' over-reliance on three elite scorers is that they lack talent and production at other aspects of good basketball," wrote Snellings.
"The team traded away the majority of their size, floor generalship and defensive talent in the series of moves that brought these scoring stars together. The NBA salary cap this season is around $136M, and the trio of Durant, Booker and Beal have a combined salary of about $130M by themselves. There just weren't enough resources for the Suns to surround their Big Three perimeter scorers with size and balanced talent.
"The result is a decidedly average team across the board. According to Basketball-Reference, despite their elite scorers, the Suns rank only 13th out of the 30 NBA teams in Offensive Rating (ORtg) at 117.7 points per 100 possessions. They rank 12th in team Defensive Rating (DRtg) at 114.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. They play at an average pace, 98.8 possessions per game (15th in NBA). They are 25th in the NBA in forcing turnovers (11.3 TO% on defense), and 20th in team defensive rebounding percentage (74.9 DRB%)."
Health Concerns
"The last elephant in the room when it comes to the Suns' roster construction is that best ability: availability.
"Durant (171 games missed from 2019-20 through 2022-23), Booker (43 games missed from 2021-22 to 2022-23) and Beal (74 games missed from 21-22 to 22-23) have all missed a lot of time due to injuries over recent seasons -- and that has played out this season as well. Beal has missed 29 out of 63 games, Booker 13 (and counting, as he's currently out injured) and Durant has sat out seven times. The Suns have only had their top trio on the court in the same game 23 times out of 63 games this season."
Snellings' conclusion: Phoenix is much closer to being an average team than a true contender.
Let's try and poke some holes in these points and overall conclusion.
Over-Reliance on Individual Scorers
While the "only one ball" sentiment is valid in theory, the conclusion for this Suns squad is a vast oversimplification that lacks context.
The Suns have a 119.6 offensive rating since December 29, which ranks 7th in the NBA (the last two weeks pushed the team down a couple of spots).
We have already covered how devastating this offense can be - and there haven't been any concrete signs that can definitely refute that sentiment - especially in a playoff context.
The playoff game is almost always built around two things - execution and shot-making.
The Suns have one of the most experienced squads in the NBA. There are also very few teams that can match the Suns in half-court shot making in clutch time of postseason contests.
Snellings also wildly undervalues the big three as playmakers, as well as off-ball threats such as Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon - especially with the latter working with ample space.
Lack of Size, Defense, and Floor Generalship
The Suns might have an issue with depth behind C Jusuf Nurkic - Drew Eubanks has been up and down as the number two center on the depth chart.
However with the emergence of Bol Bol, along with Kevin Durant, the Suns don't necessarily have a height problem. Physicality is one thing, but Nurkic, Allen, O'Neale, and more members of the roster have proven to be more than willing to play with extra toughness.
The defense argument has become stale as the season has progressed.
Phoenix ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive rating since December 29 as well - and have been entrenched as a top 10 defense since the turn of the new year.
Coach Frank Vogel's defensive scheme has finally found its footing across the Suns' roster, as well as players being underrated relative to their performances this season.
The Suns likely aren't an elite defense come playoff time, but have proven to be serviceable over a strong sample.
The "lack of floor generalship" point is fair in a vacuum - the Suns turn the ball over too often and stagnate at an alarming rate across fourth quarters, but the trio of stars also range from above-average to borderline elite playmakers.
Add in Nurkic and his underrated court vision, along with the connectivity of the other key role players - the Suns' lack of a "true" point guard shouldn't be a fatal flaw when the stakes are raised.
Health Concerns
This is likely the most valid concern. The trio of Suns' stars have had histories of various nagging injuries over the last several years - and an unfortunate injury can happen at any time.
Beal's recent improved bill of health along with Durant's durability this season should have Suns fans believing the squad will have great injury luck moving forward.
Bottom Line
The Suns are a flawed team. They aren't favorites to secure the NBA title at this moment. But this critique of Phoenix is oversimplified, lacks context, and always seems to project the worst for the Suns instead of finding a balance between high/low end outcomes.
