Betting Trends, Picks for Suns-Pacers
PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns currently are riding a seven-game winning streak entering Friday's contest against the Indiana Pacers, a team they previously defeated just days ago back in the Valley.
Our picks:
Trend of the Game Pick: Suns -4.5 (1 Unit)
via KillerSports.com
We only have to go back five days and two games to find the last meeting between the Suns and Pacers. Fast forward to today and we have two teams coming off massive victories.
Yesterday, the Pacers scored 132 points en route to defeating Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers as 4.5-point underdogs while the Suns blew out one of their greatest rivals, the Dallas Mavericks, on Wednesday night.
These teams now each carry their chance at a major let-down game. However, history can tell us which team we can afford to back here.
Since 2022, teams who covered the spread as a home dog but lost the previous matchup against their current opponent, who also scored 124+ points in their previous game, are 0-10 ATS.
The Suns, on the other hand, have proven to be more reliable after big performances.
via KillerSports.com
Since Kevin Durant touched down in Phoenix, the Suns have been more potent on the road than at home, especially after big wins. As a road team of -4.5 or less, off a win as a favorite of 11 points or more, the Suns are 4-0-1 ATS and 5-0 SU.
As long as this line remains below -6, the Suns should be the angle. Coming off a major win, and without Tyrese Haliburton and rest, the Pacers should have a hard time handling arguably the hottest team in the league.
Trend Pick: Suns-Pacers UNDER 243.5 (.75 Unit)
via KillerSports.com
Last week, with a game total of 246 points, we watched these two teams slug out a 117-110 game. Now, after a monster shooting performance of 57% from the field and 42% from three, Indiana runs into this spot.
When a team is on zero days rest, who were road dogs to their current opponent less than eight days ago and the previous contest had a higher total but went under, the under is 25-5-1. If the team with no rest scored more than 105 points last game, the under moves to 11-0.
Against the Suns, the Pacers managed 43.6% shooting and an offensive rating of 111.6, well below their season averages. In losses this season without Haliburton, the Pacers have managed 104, 105, 109, 109, 109, and 110 points. They also played a pace more favorable to Phoenix, who is the 24th-slowest team in the league.
Both teams shot the lights out of the ball in their previous games. We can expect some regression to be on our side as we slide under this total.
When the home dog is coming off a 55%+ shooting performance, and their opponent shot 51%+ in their previous game, with a game total is 224+, the dog is 2-17 SU, 3-14-2 ATS, and the under is 13-5-1.
Other Trends/Notes:
- Suns are 9-2-2 ATS with more rest than their opponent and their opponent scored more points than Phoenix did in their respective last game (Pacers 134, Suns 132).
Player Prop: Bradley Beal OVER 15.5 Points + Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 Rebounds (.75 Unit)
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Bradley Beal has been overshadowed in recent games as his teammates have had 52, 40, 43, and 46-point performances. However, Beal has contributed 20, 18, and 25 points in his last three games.
Now, Beal gets the 29th-ranked defense against small forwards. He scored 25 points vs. Indiana in their previous matchup on a nice 69% shooting. After some huge Devin Booker and Durant performances, there is an opportunity for Beal to have a trademark performance of his own.
Durant has now cleared 4.5 rebounds in 10 straight games with Beal in the lineup. The Pacers are allowing the fifth-most rebounds to power forwards and Durant is averaging about 10 rebound chances per game in his last five games.
FanDuel (-118), ESPN Bet (-125)
Alternate Bet: Bradley Beal UNDER 9.5 Rebounds+Assists
Pacers allow the fourth and seventh-fewest rebounds and assists to small forwards this season. He only had 7 combined in their last matchup.
