Suns-Heat Betting Guide: Trends, Props and More
PHOENIX -- The Miami Heat play host to the Phoenix Suns in just a few hours - here's what you should look for:
Suns-Heat UNDER 230 (1 Unit)
Tonight, two skidding teams slide into Miami in hopes of breaking their respective losing streaks. We can expect the best efforts of both teams after coming off two embarrassing losses apiece.
As we all saw, the Suns collapsed in the fourth quarter again and fell to the Magic, 113-98. However, the pace of the game was much closer to their season average than in their loss to Indiana.
We can expect the same again against Miami. The Heat have averaged a pace of 92.6 over their last nine games, which is nearly four points below the average of the slowest team in the league.
via StatMuse.com
We've witnessed a barrage of points in the paint by opposing offenses in the last two losses. Those attacks were led by the top two teams in the NBA (Orlando, Indiana) in percentage of their shots coming within three feet of the basket.
The Suns could catch a break tonight as Miami ranks 27th in the league in that aspect. With fewer downhill drives and close looks, the lackluster defensive rebounding for the Suns should be less of a factor than before.
These teams are first and second in the league in percentage of mid-range shots, and while the Suns are elite, long two-pointers are the best shots you could ask for when cheering for an under.
Trend of the Game Pick: Heat -3 (.5 Unit)
It's not every day that you get to back a team on a six-game losing streak as home favorites. After giving up 125 and 143 points in their last two contests, Miami will be coming home looking to right the ship.
via KillerSports.com
The Suns have not performed well as away dogs after bad performances or with no rest days. When Phoenix are away underdogs, after a loss, they are 0-7 SU and ATS since Kevin Durant touched down in Arizona.
Devin Booker and company are also 1-11 SU and ATS as away dogs after they lost the spread of their previous game by two or more points.
The ultimate bounce-back spot for Miami meets an atrocious spot for Phoenix who are sputtering only two games into their seven-game road trip.
Other Trends/Notes:
- Suns are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when the game total is 227+ and their previous game went under by 16+ points
- Including playoffs, Phoenix is 0-10 SU and 0-9-1 ATS as away dogs and the game total is higher than their previous total
- Home favorites of -3.5 or less, on a six-game losing streak, are 4-1 to the under when their opponent has no rest days (0-5 SU/ATS)
- The under is 7-3 in Heat games since 2022 when they are home favorites coming off a road loss (2-8 ATS)
Player Prop: Grayson Allen OVER 1.5 Threes + OVER 1.5 Assists (.5 Unit)
Grayson Allen has been somewhat of a forgotten man during the road trip, totaling only eight field goal attempts.
While limited, Allen has still shot 87.5% from the field the last two games, including 3/4 from three. Factor in the fact that Miami allows the third-highest three-point attempt rate (42.6% of shots) and there is an avenue to an Allen masterclass.
Coincidentally, that leads to the Heat giving up the second-most threes to opposing shooting guards. They also are near the top of the league in assists allowed to wings.
Despite having nine potential assists over the last two games, Allen has only totaled two assists. With more involvement and a conversion rate that is just a notch higher, two assists should come.
Allen has cleared 1.5 assists in 34 of 41 games (83%) and 13 of 16 (81%) since Beal fully returned to the lineup.
ESPN Bet (-104)
