Suns vs Thunder: What to Expect From OKC
When the Phoenix Suns take on the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Paycom Center at 4 P.M. Arizona time, it will be the fourth and final time these teams play this season. All of these games have been played since the All-Star break, with the Suns currently leading the season series two-to-one.
While one may look at this particular game from the surface and think it could be a Suns blowout win, this Thunder team is not to be taken lightly. This piece will explore how the Thunder have found themselves firmly in the playoff race with just games to go and how it may cause headaches for the Suns- namely through Mark Daigneault's masterful coaching job, and how it connects to the personnel and their play style.
Mark Daigneault was a relatively unknown coaching commodity when the Thunder named him the fourth head coach in franchise history in October 2020. As the former head coach of the Thunder's G-league affiliate, the Oklahoma City Blue, he was an ideal choice to lead the helm of a team who was clearly rebuilding-mostly due to his track record of working with young players. His career record of 46-108 coming into the 2022-23 season was not reflective at all of the job he's done with this squad, and it continues to show.
Daigneault prioritizes an offense that utilizes a lot of spacing, ball movement, and off-ball movement. The offense is built around superstar guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Daigneault still manages to integrate Shai as the engine of the offense without taking sights off of the "other" guys, including star rookie Jalen Williams.
The above video of three known role players moving the ball in beautiful fashion to get an open three-ball against a perceived good defense is just a little sample of how much Daigneault's philosophy has thrived this season. The Thunder are the NBA's fifth highest scoring team this season at 117.4 points per contest, but Daigneault's best work might be on the other end.
The Thunder do have the 19th-ranked defense in terms of opponents points per game at 116.4, but some of the other critical defensive stats can't be ignored, and we must contextualize the raw stats as well. The Thunder rank top-half of the league in steals, top three in blocks, and lead the league in turnovers forced per game at 16.3.
To contextualize all of this, the Thunder only have one great defender in wing Luguentz Dort, a couple of solid supporting pieces in Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and a bunch of undersized, inexperienced big men such as Jaylin Williams. How exactly does Oklahoma City and Daigneault manage to put forth a defense that forces opponents into a lot of errors? Look no further than the Suns' loss at the hands of the Thunder two weeks ago.
Daigneault has turned perceived personnel weaknesses into strengths. Oklahoma City was able to lock in once the Suns took a 100-90 lead with 10:52 left in the game. Devin Booker, who scored 46 points that game, was of course out of the game, but the Thunder were able to garner enough momentum while he was off the court to go on an 18-2 run and never give up the lead again. The Thunder were able to target certain players, such as Torrey Craig and Damion Lee into situations they weren't comfortable in, particularly with scramble ball, and many of the possessions lead to turnovers or bad shots.
Despite a lack of general size and strength at the rim, Lu Dort is one of the stronger POA defenders in the league, as well as one of the stronger screen navigators. The Thunder also are consistently one of the most cohesive units in the entire league on defense, rarely ever blowing assignments, and blitzing opponents at the right moment to force difficult decisions that often turn into Thunder offense. The grit and determination on hustle plays, including 50-50 balls and long rebounds is admirable as well, and that certainly falls on Daigneault's amazing coaching job.
Now the focus will be turned back to the offensive side of the ball, particularly with a focus on OKC's top six rotational pieces.
Shai is clearly the engine of the team's offense, as he has vaulted himself from fringe all-star conversations to legitimate All-NBA candidate. He has a complete arsenal to his offensive game, as he is one of the most elusive and slithery players in the league on-ball. He can get to the rim nearly at-will despite not being a freak athlete, which obviously leads to many advantages being created off the ball, and many trips to the free throw line. His three-ball consistency may not be at the level that's desired, but you would be hard-pressed to find any coach who would sag off on a perimeter-oriented possession because he has proven time and time again that he can score anywhere on the court.
The craziest part is that Shai can wreak all this havoc on opposing defenses without breaking Daigneault's regimented structure. Shai is still clearly ball-dominant, but he's ball dominant with a purpose. Shai often inflicts his will on the game within the offense, and doesn't play a ton of iso-ball or force a lot unless it's in crunch-time.
We obviously can't talk about the superstar without mentioning his rising sidekick. Jalen Williams has been nothing short of spectacular in his rookie campaign, even creating a conversation as to who should win rookie of the year between him and heralded number one overall pick Paolo Banchero. Williams started out the season much better than many expected, and was a day one impact player. But, he usually played within the offensive structure and made his mark off-ball, with impeccable spacing instincts and timely cutting.
In the last two months or so, his entire arsenal has been showcased time and time again. His three ball has been far more consistent. His sneaky good first step and explosive finishing has lead to more whistles. His seven foot wingspan means there's almost always a shot to be had over about any defender. All of this growth is being shown on a nightly basis, even to the point that there's quite a few instances of the offense being run through him. Jalen will possibly be the most interesting factor in today's game.
Josh Giddey's ability as a connector can't be ignored, regardless of what the consensus on him as an all-around player is. He is an extremely creative passer, especially in the half court, has steadily improved the consistency on his jumper, and has become more aggressive on-ball. While he may not be the overall offensive threat the two aforementioned players are, he certainly has a spot in the Thunder's offense.
Luguentz Dort is truly a wild card. There are virtually two versions of Dort on the offensive end. The Dort that uses his raw strength and sneaky good IQ to crash the offensive glass, find the hockey assist, or pressure the rim to get to the line. The Dort who takes the open corner three, which he hits at a 42.2% clip, per Basketball reference.
Then there's the Dort who plays reckless, tunnel vision ball, takes poor shots with even poorer timing, and forces the issue into many self-inflicted turnovers or lazy finishes. The Dort we get today could be another wrinkle into the outcome of the game set to tip off in mere hours.
Lastly, Jaylin Williams and Isaiah Joe are two important pieces to what the Thunder do as well. Jaylin has been playing the role of the undersized five, and while his numbers look modest at the surface, he has a jumper that needs to be respected, sets solid screens for the guards, and does a lot of the little things that get OKC's offense humming.
Suns fans obviously know about Isaiah Joe. the firecracker scorer off the bench has torched the Suns this season, averaging 16.3 points per game on 51-42-100 splits, according to ESPN. He is absolutely a player that you can never get caught sleeping on. His beautiful and consistent shot form has brought forth a three-point percentage north of 40% for the season. He truthfully doesn't always bring much more to the court than the spark-plug off the bench gig, but he is a dangerous scorer nonetheless.
While the Thunder are still young and many players haven't fully realized their potential, they are now a tough out almost any given night. The team's sheer determination, coupled with legitimate NBA talent, along with the subplot of Kevin Durant's return to OKC makes this a game that the Suns cannot take for granted. Everything is earned in this league, and the Thunder have earned everyone's respect.
