Suns-Mavericks Betting Picks Backed by Data
PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns hit the road for the first of several road tests tonight as the Dallas Mavericks play host:
Trend of the Game Pick: Suns -1.5 (1 unit)
via KillerSports.com
The Suns have been in this spot once already during their six-game winning streak. Coming off a 12-point comeback victory vs Sacramento, Phoenix traveled to New Orleans. Most teams would struggle off the high of posing a big comeback, but Phoenix won in wire-to-wire fashion.
Now, the Suns travel to Dallas off a 20-point victory at home vs Chicago. The team has found success as small favorites with a high total since Kevin Durant arrived. They are 7-0 SU, including 3-0 ATS when the line was shorter than -5.
via KillerSports.com
The Mavericks faced a similar line and total just two days ago against Boston which resulted in a 119-110 loss. In games Luka Doncic played in as home dogs of 2.5-points or less and the total is 226 or higher, Dallas is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS.
Other Trends/Notes:
- Suns are 15-4 SU as favorites when playing a team they lost against in the previous matchup
- The under is 8-1-1 when Dallas is on a 2-game losing streak and is a home dog
Player Prop: Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 Points & OVER 4.5 Rebounds + Luka Doncic OVER 27.5 Points (.75 Units)
We're keeping it simple here with two guys that the opposition doesn't have the personnel to guard.
Doncic typically bounces back from mediocre performances, as we saw against Boston. As a home dog off a loss in which he shot 40% or worse, Doncic has cleared 27.5 in all nine games while averaging 33.3 points a game.
Luka Doncic has also surpassed this number in his last five full games and six of his last seven against Phoenix.
And as Suns fans know, Durant has been on fire recently. He's scored 40 and 43 in the last two games while snatching 15 total rebounds.
The Suns also allow the ninth-most points allowed to point guards meanwhile, Dallas allows the second-most points and seventh-most rebounds to power forwards.
ESPNBET +114, FanDuel +106
Alternate Bet: Durant OVER 24.5 points + Grayson Allen OVER 1.5 Threes Made (-111)
