Analyst: Wolves Can Spoil Suns Season
How the Minnesota Timberwolves can send the Phoenix Suns home early.
PHOENIX -- It's not often when the lower-seeded team is seen as a potential favorite, but such is life for the No. 6 Phoenix Suns when they take on the No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of postseason action - which begins on Saturday.
It could be Phoenix's star power (though Minnesota certainly doesn't lack it themselves), expectations after spending deep into the luxury tax or the Suns walking away as double-digit winners in all three previous contests against the Wolves.
For various reasons, the Suns got what many believe to be the "ideal" first-round matchup.
Bleacher Report believes otherwise.
In their list of three teams who can play spoiler in the first round, the Wolves landed as an underdog who can send Phoenix home packing:
"Devin Booker has won five playoff series, and Bradley Beal's career total is at three. Those match the figures posted by Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, respectively, but nobody on the Minnesota Timberwolves comes anywhere close to Kevin Durant's 22 postseason series wins," wrote Grant Hughes.
"That gulf in experience, along with a general mistrust in the Minnesota Timberwolves' offense and the potential for the Suns' mid-range maestros to feast on the league's drop-favoring No. 1 defense, are all reasons why the lower-seeded Suns are actually the betting favorites here. That's right: The higher-seeded team is the underdog in this situation.
"Phoenix went 3-0 against Minnesota during the regular season, but the Wolves won seven more games and posted a net rating 3.1 points per 100 possessions higher than the Suns. So it shouldn't be all that hard to make the "long-shot" case for Minnesota.
"Though Minnesota's defensive style invites the shots Booker, Durant and Beal prefer, it's difficult to think of a team with better personnel to throw at Phoenix's three stars. Anthony Edwards is among the league's best point-of-attack stoppers when fully engaged, and he'll bring maximum intensity to the postseason. Jaden McDaniels is one of the few humans on earth with the length and foot speed to bother Durant, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker is up for the challenge of checking Booker or Beal.
"Behind them, Rudy Gobert looms. Maybe his minus-68 plus/minus in 86 minutes against the Suns this year was an aberration?
"Offensive rebounding isn't a big part of either team's profile, but the Wolves certainly have the size to create an advantage on the boards. If the Suns can't rebound or defend well enough to get away with playing KD at center for significant stretches, it'll favor the Wolves.
"Lastly, Phoenix faded in fourth quarters all season. Some combination of fatigue and predictable offense sapped the Suns of their strength in the final 12 minutes, contributing to a league-worst minus-11.6 fourth-quarter net rating.
"With big-minute playing-time demands on the table and Minnesota's defense capable of putting the clamps on anyone, it's possible the Suns' ugly late-game trend will persist. If that happens, this could actually be a short series in which the Wolves have little difficulty.
"Phoenix is prone to some of the ugliest stretches of disjointed basketball you'd ever want to see. It shouldn't be favored over a 56-win Wolves team with a defense this dominant."
It all depends on which Suns team shows up. They'll have at least four more games to make good on their potential.
