2022 NBA Draft: Chet Holmgren Scouting Report
In the modern era of basketball, the premise of possessing a “unicorn” has taken over the league. With teams electing to go smaller in size, prioritizing spacing the floor and playing the game at a much higher octane – front offices and scouts alike have extensively researched for the league’s next unicorn. Looking to hone in on lengthy figures who possess guard-like attributes, just like mythology, coming across a unicorn is a rare occurrence. However, if found, its powerful nature can propel you to a new level.
Assessing the 2022 NBA Draft class, Gonzaga big Chet Holmgren has taken on the mystifying attributes of a unicorn, and his play has shown dashes of unique ability.
Collegiate Stats:
Measurables:
Chet Holmgren is a cream-of-the-crop prospect under his pegged archetype. Standing at 7-feet tall, Holmgren’s height projects at the center spot in the league. However, at 195 pounds, his frame makes him one of the more unique players to hit the draft process. As a result, making him one of the most intriguing pieces going into draft night.
Holmgren’s initial framework is most akin to Oklahoma City Thunder forward Aleksej Pokusevski, who measured in at 7 feet, 190 pounds. However, if he builds some muscle, look towards last year’s No 2. Pick, Evan Mobley, has a comparable build at 7’0”, 215 pounds. Alongside this, other premier shot creators such as Kevin Durant and Brandon Ingram entered their respective classes with similar body types, giving way for even more potential mismatches his size may bring.
Coinciding with his stalky frame, Holmgren adds even more appeal to his build as his 7-foot-6 wingspan virtually all other “guard-like” bigs, making him a potential positional nightmare on both sides of the ball.
Strengths:
+Rim Protection
What Chet Holmgren lacks in size, he makes up for in length. In particular, he does so as one of the most dominant shot blockers in the draft class – performing under various types of assignments.
Working off of his frame, Holmgren is a capable shot blocker without even leaving his feet. Though a standing reach is yet to be recorded, his 7-foot, 7-foot-6 wingspan makeup makes him a nightmarish defender to face up against. In a sedentary position, Holmgren does a solid job remaining vertical around the basket, leading to the majority of centers attempting to create in the post game. However, even at Holmgren’s frame, he did a solid job closing the distance on larger defenders as though centers tended to sneak a hair of space in off of post spins – he made up for the distance due to his tall stature.
In the cases that Holmgren elevates to reject shots, the level of difficulty takes a major uptick as, on multiple occasions, he skied over his teammates to reject their matchups’ shots. Generally speaking, his radius of shot-contesting ability is one of his biggest selling points moving forward.
While hounding frontcourt players in the shot-blocking department, Holmgren’s ability to block shots on the move ticks his defensive ability to a new level. Though Holmgren can allow guards to sneak a step or two on him in penetrations, his agility combined with his build essentially closes the distance, making him a proficient shot blocker in a chasedown setting.
One of the most impressive parts of his shot-blocking skills rests in the fact that fouls did not appear often on his score cards, averaging 2.7 per contest.
Holmgren stuffed the stat sheet in the shot-blocking department, marking the fourth-most blocks per game, averaging 3.9 with the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Given his length, sneaky verticality, agility, and his ability to reject shots will continue at the next level.
+Well-Versed Finisher
Going into the draft process, Chet Holmgren’s ability to score on the interior against NBA centers will be a routine question brought into the conversation. If college was any indication, he should have a knack for scoring around the basket.
Holmgren’s collegiate play showcased himself as one of the best interior scorers in years, and he did it alternating shooting hands. In all, Holmgren led the nation in points in the paint, shooting 80-of-100 (80.0%) in his lone season with the Bulldogs. Though he leaned more on his right hand when it came to yielding shots around the basket, he did not shy away from taking inside shots with his off-hand.
In terms of shot creation in the paint, a cut of his plays came off of an entry pass or second chance looks. However, his footwork was a big point of emphasis. Holmgren has the idealistic build for inside shots, but with a weight disparity, he turned to getting an angle through his use of the post-spin.
Despite being under 200 pounds, Holmgren plays up a few sizes when attacking the basket as he’s prone to take contact on drives or go all-out for driving dunks. In both fastbreak and halfcourt settings, he’s a scary force in the alley-oop department. Due to his height, a loft in his general vicinity paved the way for an oop conversion, or at the bare minimum, a crack at the rim off a gather.
+Downhill Threat
Even at a 7-foot frame, Holmgren can impact the offense both in the frontcourt and halfcourt.
Holmgren was Gonzaga’s go-to rebounder this season, averaging 9.9 boards per contest, but unlike most centers, he loves to run the full length of the floor. Upon initial rebounds, Holmgren likes to scan the floor for potential full-court outlet passes, but if those options close, he likes to take the ball up himself. Matching up against undersized competition, Holmgren’s defender’s often played for the painted area, allowing him to settle at the top-of-the-key for three-point shots. He made this a staple of his game, sometimes rattling down identical transition threes separated by mere minutes.
If Holmgren sees the light of day in slashing to the basket, he’ll choose to do so. Holmgren’s long strides allowed him to sift through the other teams’ frontcourt, generating situations where he’s going up against defenders a half-a-foot shorter than him. In these cases, they called for both quality looks and wide-open driving lanes.
When not taking the basketball past the timeline, Holmgren does a solid job hiding in the early developments of the possession, opening himself up to being a viable trailer for catch-and-shoot jumpers.
+Pick-and-Roll Defense
As aforementioned, Holmgren does a stellar job operating under his current framework, which translates very well on the defensive end – specifically in pick-and-roll settings.
Due to his lengthy yet nimble build, Holmgren does an excellent job hedging and sometimes outright switching off of ball screens. On the chance that Holmgren over pursues the ball-handler, leading to an open pass to the interior, he’s able to cover ground at unheard of extents due to his stride. That makes him a premier candidate for chasedown blocks and contests.
When Holmgren has to stay out on the perimeter following the initial screen, he’s not the best in terms of mirroring his defender, sometimes resulting in giving up a step or two. However, he does a far better job than the average center in holding up at the perimeter.
+ Pick-and-Roll Offense
Not only is Chet a talented player on the defensive side of screens – his offensive side is dynamic – and arguably even better.
Given Holmgren’s sneaky shooting ability, he was a lethal target under Mark Few as a player to convert on pops following a screen being set. Due to his interior work, a lot of these shots were allowed for him, and he converted. Inside, his production ramps up even further.
Due to his speediness, Holmgren is able to free himself up for cuts fairly easily against bigs, utilizing his quickness to take the initial step and gain inside position over his defender. Because of this, he freed himself up for a plethora of cuts, leading to baskets.
Holmgren’s sneakiest yet most lethal play off of high-ball screens came from his work to convert off of alley-oops. As ironic as it is, defenders had a tasking time locking onto Holmgren following a screen being set, specifically when the big man opted to hedge or switch on the play. As a result, he made himself a large target for his guards as them lofting passes up high proved to be the trump card over doubles on screens, switches, and late reactions off of hedges.
+Ball-Handling Potential
Chet Holmgren still needs to make some improvements when it comes to handling the basketball, but the foundation has been laid for success.
Holmgren showed the majority of his handling abilities in coast-to-coast situations as though his bounce did tend to be more on the loose end. He hardly coughed the ball up when dribbling strictly forward. He has added a moving crossover to his arsenal in transition, leading to positive angles on drives, but he’s stuck to the basics in most cases.
His best trait as a ball-handler actually intertwines with his footwork as he does an astute job going for moving spins to create space in the open floor. In his moves leading into shots, he’s dabbled into pulling up off of the dribble.
+ Crafty Passer
Though Holmgren was not the point man for playmaking this season. He still showed some real upside as a passer.
Across Holmgren’s 61 assists this season, he sprinkled in a collection of jaw-dropping passes that really made you wonder “how did he find that guy?” When working in the post, Holmgren showed tendencies of surveying the floor and finding his open teammate out at the perimeter. As noted in his downhill game, he’ll survey for deep outlets off a rebound. These two flashes give reason to believe Holmgren could significantly improve as a passer and make some noise at the next level here.
+Shooting Ability
As a shooter, Chet Holmgren knocked his freshman campaign out of the park with the Bulldogs, surfacing perimeter capabilities in multiple different settings.
Holmgren ended the season with Gonzaga shooting 41-of-105 (39.0%). In his tenure, the seven-footer explored his downhill game as he developed a hallmarked pull-up top-of-the-key triple which he had aced by the end of the season. In the majority of Holmgren’s cases, defenders disregarded his shooting ability, stalking at the foul line in fastbreak settings to pester away drive attempts.
In addition to his work in transition, Holmgren also prospered popping to the three-point line after screens for catch-and-shoot situations. He has shown the potential in this area as his work shooting jumpers, coupled with his slashes make him a compatible five for the modern NBA.
Holmgren also saw stints playing out of DHOs and coming off of screens. Though these came sparingly, his ability to capitalize on these opportunities expands his boundaries as an offensive piece.
In some cases, Holmgren indulged in jump shots created off of the bounce as well. However, that part of his game is more harped on potential than his face-up play as of now.
+Agility and Toughness
It goes without saying, weighing under 200 pounds in a seven-foot frame is an oddity. It’s even more of one for a player slated to go top 3 in the upcoming draft. However, Holmgren has mastered playing at his current weight group.
Holmgren’s aggressive play on both sides of the ball mitigates the skinny frame that he plays under. Though he may not be the strongest center on the floor, his speed on the ball, his footwork, and his willingness to engage in contact make him a difficult player to stand up against.
Areas of Improvement
- Weight
Though Holmgren has done a magnificent job playing under his frame, there’s still some downside to him playing under such a lanky frame.
Playing in the WAC, Holmgren’s competition at the center spot hardly played up to traditional NBA standards. However, back-to-basket bigs did show the ability to move him back a step off of hard backdowns. On the bright side, Holmgren’s shot-blocking ability often axed this issue. But, with stronger centers across the board in the NBA – he’ll need to put on some additional weight. Though, needless to say, that is to be expected.
Holmgren faced an NBA-ready prospect in March Madness this season in Memphis center Jalen Duren. In this highly-anticipated matchup, Duren yielded initial success getting the angle on him via post spins – but Holmgren did a solid job getting back into plays for contests and blocks.
The more underlying point of note with Holmgren's weight isn't his play, but more his risk of injury. Due to his tenacious nature on both sides of the floor, seeing him sidelined for stints would not be unheard of. On a positive note, Holmgren was an iron man for the Bulldogs this season, playing in all 32 of their games. With a clean injury history and medical notes not in the public eye, this mention is nothing more than the run-of-the-mill talking point for skinnier bigs. However, it's always worth monitoring.
- Release Speed
In terms of shooting, Holmgren saw little issue for Gonzaga this season. But, he still could improve.
As previously noted, Holmgren shot a staggering 39.0% on threes this year. He did this in multiple ways, but in most cases, his shots came with little-to-no closeouts. At the NBA level, defenders will be looking to close out on his jumpshots anytime they get the opportunity, and though he holds a height advantage – there are a few kinks he’ll need to work out.
Holmgren finds his success working off of more of a standard set shot as there’s hardly any elevation on his attempts. Because he’s seven feet tall, this never seemed to cause many issues in college.
In terms of actual mechanics, Holmgren has a beautiful release as his shooting motion brings the ball to face level before launching the ball what looks to be about nine feet off the ground. That’s impressive, to say the least. To tag along with this, his jumpshot complements his height as unlike some lengthy players, such as Aleksej Pokusevski, his release goes fairly vertical – making it a tough task to contest him on the floor.
The one tweak Holmgren could modify in his jumpshot is his initial gather, as his motion of bringing the ball from his chest up to his release point does take longer than most, leaving him susceptible to closeouts while working as an on-ball creator.
- Defensive Footwork
Holmgren is one of, if not the top player in recovering space in this draft class. However, he could use a touch-up as a perimeter defender moving forward.
In stints, Holmgren does a solid job defending the perimeter as his size creates a major wall to the basket. However, with guards becoming more and more infatuated with on-ball creation, particularly off of stepbacks – Holmgren can use some work with his footwork on defense.
Blow-bys did occur against Holmgren in college, but he did well most of the time. If he’s ever tied up on a switch, his more grounded stance does leave him vulnerable to space creators. But, as long as he stays in the vicinity, his length imposes major problems on defenders.
- Loose Handle
At seven-feet tall, it’s expected for a player such as Chet Holmgren to possess a looser handle than most. However, maintaining a tighter leash on the ball would help amplify his skills in playing around the basket.
Due to Holmgren’s handle, he’s susceptible to defenders picking his pocket in halfcourt situations. In terms of fastbreak play, this also is a notable concern – but not to the same magnitude.
For your run-of-the-mill center, Holmgren has a solid palate as a ball-handler. Ideally, you’d like him to be a bit better with succession dribbles and size-ups, but he’s still a hard cover with his current on-ball play.
Overall:
Chet Holmgren is a unique talent that you don’t find on any given draft cycle. His excellence around the basket, the perimeter, and even creating for himself is uncanny for a seven-footer – and with a bulk in the cards, he’ll be a handful for other teams for years to come.
With his agility, Holmgren is an elite pick-and-roll player as if his three-pointer stays afloat he’ll be insanely difficult to cover as his frame makes him a deadly roll man while his ability to pop also can torch defenses. Around the basket, his footwork and overall grittiness to take contact also make him a threat.
Once bulked to his full form, Holmgren is a player you could see in the mix for defensive accolades as his overall rim protection and work covering the floor is something that you won’t find in your ordinary center.
Holmgren still needs to hone in on mastering both his on-ball creation and handle to limit potential inconsistencies in his play. But, even with his current archetype, he’s a contributor who should be able to make an impact right away on both ends of the ball as he slips right into most systems as a screen setter who can both stay outside and defend on the other end.
Evaluation: All-Star Caliber Big with Defensive Prowess
Chet Holmgren is a player who still needs to master some areas in his game, particularly in creating his own shots. However, the blueprint is there for him to be a double-double machine. His length and versatility should make him a surefire option in the pick-and-roll from day one, and if his three-point shot stays par to the course – he gives you the entire package, offensively, for what you want at the five spot.
Holmgren is a name to watch in the shot-blocking category for years to come as collegiately, he stayed disciplined in the foul department while providing rim protection both standing and on the move.
A healthy Holmgren, even at his floor, is a contributor who would start on a strong playoff team as his traits that come virtually risk-free, being his rim protection and inside play, make him better than the majority of frontcourt players currently in the league.
If he manages to check the boxes as a shooter and as a ball-handler, the sky becomes the limit for Holmgren. He is a bit clunky taking up the basketball now, but once in space, he’s a player who can erupt both pulling up at the three or slashing to the basket for penetrations.
In terms of versatility, it’s hard to find a player more fitting than Holmgren. Barring injury, he’s a high-floor, high-ceiling prospect who can yield you stats any day of the week. But his hybrid of speed and self-creation puts him on the map for sliding down to the power forward spot as well if need be.
The talent is there with Holmgren. Under a franchise already built around a high usage of screens and guard play, he fits like a glove as a juggernaut in this category and then some.
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