History of 12: Teams with the 12th Odds Typically Stay in Order
A new chapter in the Thunder’s history officially begins on Tuesday night as they will find out where they fall in the NBA Draft Lottery this year.
The Thunder enter the drawing with the 12th best odds at the No. 1 overall pick. Historically speaking OKC’s odds of earning any pick other than the predicted 12th, is nearly zero. History is not on the side of the Thunder this year in terms of odds as the team with the 12th odds has not moved out of the 12th slot in over two decades.
The last time the 12th odds earned a pick other than the projected was in 1999 when Seattle drew the 13th pick after entering with the 12th best odds.
Since the lottery changed to flattened odds in the 2019 selection process the 12th spot has gone as chalk as it can. The Hornets (2019), the Kings (2020), the Spurs (2021) and the Clippers (2022) had all entered lottery night with the hope of somehow earning a top 10 pick, just to have the hopes crushed staying in the 12th slot.
OKC has a 1.7% chance to earn the top pick in the draft and between a 1.8-2.37% chance to select second through fourth.
Both the math and history steer the Thunder away from having any major change in their draft position. Though math and history also show it’s unlikely OKC selects any lower than 12th too. The Thunder have an 85.23% chance to select at No. 12 and a 6.66% chance or less to select 13th or 14th.
Entering a big day for the Thunder the chance they earn a top-10 pick is unlikely, but not completely out of the picture until the final results are released Tuesday night even though history is not on OKC’s side.
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