OKC Thunder Could Benefit From Struggling Defenses Next Round

The Thunder’s next opponent might be easier to score against than New Orleans.

Mar 14, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma City’s first-round series was a slugfest, but that could change the next time they step on the floor.

The Thunder swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round to win their first playoff series since 2016. Despite the Thunder finishing with a top-five offense and defense, the series tilted heavily toward defense.

With the Pelicans never scoring more than 92 and failing to reach the 90-point mark in New Orleans, the first round featured some of the lowest-scoring affairs for the Thunder this season. Along with playing great defense against the Pelicans, the Thunder were facing an elite defense. 

After failing to reach 100 points in the regular season only three times and winning only twice when scoring 106 or fewer, Oklahoma City finished below triple digits twice against New Orleans, which had the seventh-best defense this season. Although Oklahoma City does not know its second-round opponent yet, the team could have an easier time scoring against the LA Clippers or Dallas Mavericks.

In the regular season, the Clippers and Mavericks finished 18th and 17th in defensive rating. The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers were the only playoff teams to finish with worse defenses.

Beyond the defensive inconsistencies of those teams, those rankings favor the Thunder historically. In the past five seasons, only one team ranked 17th or lower in defensive rating has made the conference finals.

Those middle-of-the-pack defensive ratings have also correlated with unimpressive rebounding numbers. Considering securing the glass has been a weakness for Oklahoma City, inconsistencies from Dallas and LA in that area could lead to another advantage.

However, those rankings do not guarantee anything easier for the Thunder. Although neither the Clippers nor Mavericks have a defensive stopper like Herb Jones to put on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, both teams have shown the potential to make things difficult on that end. 

In the playoffs, those teams have had similar defensive numbers to New Orleans, which could be a sign of improvement, given that both teams boast top-10 offenses.

Still, with hobbled stars in Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard, either team could struggle to match up effectively with the Thunder. Considering their series could easily go seven games, the Thunder will have a distinct advantage going into the second round.

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