State of the Thunder: Bright future, big Questions Await OKC
The long-awaited All-Star break is here.
If you're a veteran, like Derrick Favors, it’s seven days to rest and let your body recover from the grueling NBA schedule as you prepare for the second half. If this is your first All-Star break, as it is for all four of the Thunder’s rookies, this can be a good time to reflect on what can feel like a whirlwind of a first half.
So while the Thunder players reflect on their first half, let’s take our own look at the first 58 games, the development of those rookie and their fellow youngsters and what it all means for what the future will hold for the Thunder.
Through 58 games the Thunder sit 18-40, good for the second-worst record in the Western Conference, and fourth-worst in the NBA. This roster wasn’t built to win, it wasn’t expected to win and, if anything, has slightly overperformed based on the talent currently rostered.
The Thunder are currently the league’s youngest team and will finish the season with win total somewhere in the mid-20s. This is credit, in large part, to just how fast those youngsters have developed. But we’ll get to them later.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, in his fourth season, is no longer one of them. In fact, with three years of experience he is tied for third on the Thunder roster — only behind Derrick Favors (11) and Mike Muscala (8) — and he’s certainly played like it this season.
Gilgeous-Alexander enters the All-Star break nursing an ankle injury, but in the 43 games he’s played this season he showed the makings of someone who could in the marquee game on All-Star weekend. He has averaged 22.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists this season on 42.4% shooting from the field.
Now, about those rookies. The Thunder selected four players in the 2021 draft, two in the first (Josh Giddey, Tre Mann) and two in the second (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Aaron Wiggins), and through 58 games it’s looking like a home run of a draft class for OKC.
Heading into the break Giddey is on a streak of three-straight triple-doubles,a feat only Oscar Robertson has ever accomplished as a rookie. Giddey has exceeded just about everyone’s expectations this season, averaging 12.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists with those numbers jumping to 16.4/8.7/7.9 in February. Clearly the NBA wasn’t the massive leap in difficulty for the Australian that most thought it would be.
While Giddey’s breakout rookie campaign is surprising and certainly impressive, he might not even be the most surprising member of the Thunder’s 2021 class. Mann averaged 16 points per game at the University of Florida, but entering the NBA there were questions as to what position he would play and with OKC having already taken a guard, how much he would even play. Well safe to say he has played his way out of those concerns.
As a bench player, we should look at Mann’s Per 36 numbers to get a grasp on where he’s at. With those he is averaging 15.6 points per game and that largely comes as a backup. With the Injury to Gilgeous-Alexander, Mann has taken the second guard spot in OKC’s starting lineup and has taken full advantage of the opportunity. Since then he is averaging 14.4 points per game — headlined by a 30-point performance in Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks.
Robinson-Earl hasn’t lit the world on fire, but has been exactly what OKC drafted him to be — a consistent rebounder with the ability to add some scoring of his own. Averaging 7.1 points and 5.8 rebounds has garnered him 36 starts.
Aaron Wiggins has averaged 7.1 points and 3.4 rebounds while starting 20 of his 34 games with the Thunder — good enough to be the latest Thunder second-rounder to have his contract converted.
With all of that being said, and OKC having plenty of young talent to work with, there are still a few questions that will need to be answered before OKC is contending for its second finals berth.
OKC has its star in Gilgeous-Alexander, and it has the point guard of the future in Giddey, the issue is they might not be best-suited for one another.
Gilgeous-Alexander may be the league’s best penetrating guard, so naturally you’d want him to have the ball.
Giddey is among, if not at the top of the league’s list of great passers, so naturally you'd want him to have the ball.
You see the problem?
Now, this doesn’t mean you have to trade one of the two. Giddey is in the first year of his rookie deal and Gilgeous-Alexander is locked for the foreseeable future, so OKC has time. But to keep them together something will likely have to change long-term, whether that be Giddey taking over as the main ball-handler or he will need to improve his shooting enough to be a strong secondary ball-handler.
The second major question is what to do with Lu Dort. He will be an unrestricted free agent after next season, so the clock is ticking. Dort has proven to be an elite defender, and he has taken major strides on offense this season, so keeping him around wouldn't be a foolish idea. But depending on what he wants to make, would a Giddey-Gilgeous-Alexander-Dort Big 3 really make sense? Most likely not.
The good news for the Thunder, and its front office is none of these questions need to be answered today, or tomorrow, or anytime before the offseason, so they can sit back and enjoy Giddey’s Rising Stars appearance and prepare for what could be a transformational offseason with a treasure trove of draft picks in their back pocket.
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