Thunder Trio Emerges, Leading Franchise Towards Bright Future
You’d be hard-pressed to find a single soul who thought the Oklahoma City Thunder would find themselves seriously vying for a Play-In spot and sitting just one game behind the seventh seed in the Western Conference this late in the season. Yes, currently the Thunder are sitting in a four-way tie for the ninth seed along with the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers, and New Orleans Pelicans.
Of course, the driving force behind the Thunder being able to blow away even the highest of expectations is none other than first-time All-Star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and his all-around improvement this season that has earned him a spot on the ballot for Most Improved Player. His 31.2 points, 5.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 52.8% free throw rate, and 90.8% shooting from the foul line has certainly paved the way for his team’s success, but it’s important to remember that basketball is a team sport.
As great as Gilgeous-Alexander is, he can’t do it alone.
Cue the best up-and-coming talents in Oklahoma City not named Gilgeous-Alexander: the 20-year-old Josh Giddey and the 21-year-old Jalen Williams. Both have certainly had their ups and downs as they fine-tune, via trial and error, their respective games to the competition of the NBA, but their growth has provided the Thunder the added muscle to propel the team from a 41.3% win rate last season to a 47.8% win rate this season.
Giddey has a real knack for feeling opposing defenses, especially in transition, and punishes them by drawing help and then threading the needle to open teammates or just by making the right play, evidenced by his assist percentage: 30%.
He has no trouble finding the open man on the perimeter, the backdoor cutter, or a rolling big, helping guys like Isaiah Joe, Dario Saric, and Aaron Wiggins thrive off-ball.
But Giddey’s passing isn’t his only skill. At 6-foot-8 with real ball-handling abilities, the sophomore from Australia does a fantastic job driving, using his strength to barrel down the lane by backing down his defenders, if only momentarily, before utilizing some fancy footwork to create good looks at the rim, where he converts 61.4% of his 6.4 attempts per game. He’s also improved his outside shot to the tune of 32% 3-point shooting – up from 26.3% last season. Add in his floater game, and Giddey can really hurt you in a number of ways.
While Giddey can light it up offensively, his wingman is extremely well-rounded and able to excel on both sides of the ball.
At 6-foot-6, Williams not only can stay in front of most players, he can really frustrate them where his 211-pound frame and 7-foot-3 wingspan provides a challenging barrier. Williams’ length also allows him to play a step or two off his man to help his teammates where his awareness and instincts helps him earn 2.2 steals and 0.8 blocks per 100 possessions.
Offensively, you could easily argue that he is more gifted than Giddey sans some discrepancy in passing ability. And although he has taken a backseat to Giddey throughout his rookie season, Williams’ usage rate has started to creep up with Gilgeous-Alexander missing time due to injury and Kenrich Williams out for the season.
He’s been able to capitalize on the increased opportunity, too, averaging 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and just 1.8 turnovers per game while shooting 56.3% from the floor, 47.5% from deep, and 86% from the free throw line in his last 13 outings.
Numbers don't do Williams' performance justice, though. Williams does everything. The word "well-rounded" is the perfect descriptor for his game. Whether he is asked to play in more of a spot-up role or initiate the offense and create for himself and others, the big guard is more than capable of doing both at a very high level.
Overall, the improvement of Giddey and the emergence of Williams has been a welcome development. In the first half of the season, there were just too many games where Gilgeous-Alexander was the only player that could consistently get buckets. Now, that seems to be happening less and less.
Together, three-man lineup data shows that they haven’t been good; they’ve been great. Well, at least since the turn of the new year where they boast a 15-9 record when all three play.
Since January 1st, when the trio is on the floor together, they are averaging 119 points while giving up just 109.8 points on defense per 100 possessions, producing a 9.3 net rating in 427 minutes of play. Only four teams have produced a better result in that same time-frame, having played 400-plus minutes: the Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, and Minnesota Timberwolves – all destined for the Playoffs.
The Thunder are playing with a pace that measures in at 104.23 when they share the court, too – the fifth fastest three-man lineup with 400-plus minutes played since the new year. Not only are they playing fast, they are playing remarkably efficiently, posting a 59.9 true shooting percentage, shooting 51.6% from the floor, 36.4% on 25.9 3-pointers per 100 possessions, and 81.4% shooting from the foul line.
It will be interesting to see if Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, and Williams can indeed lead the second-youngest team in NBA history to the postseason, but even if they don’t, the future certainly looks incredibly bright as the three are helping to lay a solid, balanced foundation to build on going forward, one that values defensive effort, ball-movement, and simply making the right play.
And with Gilgeous-Alexander just entering his prime years, Giddey still developing en route to a third NBA season, and Williams already looking like a complete player in his first season, this team is just scratching the surface of what they can be moving forward. Add another year of development and a healthy Chet Holmgren, and the Thunder could start looking very scary sooner rather than later.
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