Two Years Since Presti Preached Patience, the Thunder Rebuild Needs Fans to Heed His Words
Rebuilds are never easy.
No fan wants to go into any game knowing their team is going to struggle to compete, regardless of what it could mean for the future of the franchise.
As the Thunder enter Year 2 of their full-on rebuild, general manager Sam Presti continues to collect draft assets while taking shots on high potential players in the NBA Draft.
And while fans may be frustrated with Presti’s insistence on acquiring draft picks instead of players who can help the team win now, it’s important to remember that this is all part of the plan Presti laid out in an article in The Oklahoman nearly two years ago after the Thunder traded longtime star Russell Westbrook.
“Oklahoma City expects, and deserves, extraordinary success,” Presti wrote. “But I want to be transparent and realistic about the process that meeting these types of expectations may require. Despite our city’s rapid rise and growth, Oklahoma City remains the second-smallest market in the NBA. While this brings many benefits, it also poses strategic challenges. Given the way the league’s system is designed, small market teams operate with significant disadvantages.”
Building through the draft is the only realistic way for the Thunder to get back into contention as a small market. Free agency simply isn’t an option, and OKC’s track history landing free agents shows the franchise can’t rely on building that way.
Pawning off picks for established stars can paper over the lack of free agency additions, but even OKC’s most high profile success story, Paul George, asked out just one year into his deal.
In Presti’s eyes, there’s only one way forward.
“In order to build — and then sustain — a truly great basketball team, it requires a method,” Presti wrote. “This method is not guesswork or a convenient message that miscasts other’s good fortune as a repeatable skill. To build true excellence in any industry, and then sustain it, requires trading on time and playing the empirical odds.”
The “empirical odds” Presti alluded to are simple. More stars get drafted in the first-round of the NBA Draft than the second-round. And of those first rounders, the higher in the draft the pick is, on average, the better the player the team is going to get.
So Presti will continue to collect first round picks with the hopes that they’ll be top-end draft picks. Or if not, Presti hopes that the Thunder will be able to move up.
OKC lost out on the lottery in 2021, and the players at the top were projected to be so good that the five franchises in front of him didn’t want to trade back. It’s unfortunate, yes, but Presti is interested in playing the percentages over a multiple year sample, not pinning his entire strategy on one specific draft.
“This will require strategic discipline and thoughtful patience, but these are values our organization has always held high,” Presti wrote. “That’s how longevity is earned. It is important to remember that.
“It will take us time, now, to reposition, replenish and then ultimately rebuild our team. Things will inevitably get harder from here. At some point during this transition, we may not have the kind of team you’ve been used to. But we will be fearless, focused, and relentless in seeking opportunities to improve our long-term position.”
The Oklahoma City rebuild won’t happen over night, which is why Presti penned his vision for the franchise.
It’s going to get worse before it gets better, but Presti hopes, and his job depends on, the light at the end of the tunnel being worth the wait.
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