What Will Chet Holmgren's Rookie Year Stat Line Look Like?
Chet Holmgren has been the talk of the summer, from lighting it up in Las Vegas, to teaming up with Paolo Banchero in Jamal Crawford’s summer league.
He’s also had his moments where he’s been pushed around in the paint, but that’s to be expected. Holmgren has already been dunked on a few times, but has more than his fair share of highlight blocks. One thing that has been clear, though, is that he won’t back down at the rim or on the perimeter. Holmgren is here to compete.
No matter which side of the fence you stand regarding Holmgren’s NBA potential, you’ll be watching how he performs his rookie season. There are concerns about certain matchups, but then again, can anyone defend the Joel Embiid’s and the Nikola Jokic’s of the league? The Thunder seem ready to throw Holmgren into the fire and let him loose right away. If that’s the case, what will his opening year stat line end up looking like?
The former Gonzaga star is entering a unique situation in Oklahoma City. Most times when top picks debut on their new squad, the supporting cast is less than stellar. While that may be true to an extent, Holmgren is joining one of the best young passers in the league in Josh Giddey and a rising All-Star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That should help ease Holmgren into the NBA and do wonders for his initial efficiency.
Gilgeous-Alexander should still comfortably lead the Thunder in scoring, but Holmgren, Giddey, and maybe a guy off the bench like Tre Mann will compete for second. It seems like a safe bet envisioning Holmgren scoring around 15 points per game next season, finding most buckets from play-finishing slams and pop-out 3-pointers. If Holmgren can drill over 35% of his triples, his confidence will continue to grow and his point total could increase. He’ll also sprinkle in some self-creation and turn-around jumpers, but will have time to develop more as the season goes on.
Rebounding wise, Holmgren is going to be asked to do a lot for the Thunder. This is one area that could see a spike as he continues to put on weight and muscle. For now, Holmgren will be teaming up with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Darius Bazley trying to rip down rebounds against opposing towers down low. He should be able to over around eight rebounds per game, which will likely lead the Thunder on a nightly basis.
The safest bet of the 2022-23 season is that a healthy Holmgren will lead Oklahoma City in blocks. Not only will he lead the Thunder, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up in the NBA’s top five in most shot-blocking categories next season. Holmgren is a generational shot blocker and is a serious rim protector. It’s a hefty number, but averaging over three blocks a game is very much in reach for the big man.
While he wasn’t able to show off a ton of his creation at Gonzaga, Holmgren can still create for others. He has solid vision at the top of the key when passing out of face-ups, and should be able to help out Oklahoma City’s elite slashers on back-door races to the rim. Aaron Wiggins and Jalen Williams are two players that come to mind immediately when thinking about middle-cutting options for Holmgren to hit often.
After Holmgren’s rookie season, it may be hard to not buy into the hype. The Thunder big man could help this squad in so many different ways while developing into one of the NBA’s young stars. Factoring in Holmgren’s strengths on the floor and the situation he’s currently in, 15 points, eight rebounds, three blocks and three assists seems like reasonable expectations for the rookie’s opening year line. If the Thunder start to gel and compete, though, Holmgren could take off sooner.
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