How Robert Saleh can Crack the Human Cheat Code Patrick Mahomes
For the last couple of years, defensive coordinators across the league have been banging their heads against the wall trying to figure out how to stop, or even just slow down Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. The former MVP has taken the NFL by storm and has quickly ascended into one of the league’s best signal-callers.
Since there doesn’t appear to be a consistent formula to keep the gunslinger in check, San Francisco 49ers’ defensive coordinator Robert Saleh essentially has to put a gameplan together from scratch for the Super Bowl.
There is no secret about it, the Chiefs live and die by their offense and Mahomes is the main reason why. In the playoffs, the team leads the league in both points per game with 43 and passing yards with 608. To make the most obvious statement that has ever been written, the 49ers really need to figure out a way to slow down the quarterback and the Chiefs offense as a whole.
Of course, the question is, how? As stated above, there really isn’t a definitive answer at this point but below are a few insights that San Francisco can utilize to potentially answer this complicated question.
There is a reason pass rushers make big-time money in free agency. Every quarterback is significantly worse when he’s throwing with people in his face rather than having room to throw, and Mahomes is no different.
The three-year veteran posted a completion percentage of 72.4 from a clean pocket during the regular season via Player Profiler. However, that number dropped nearly 30 percent to 44.7 when he was under duress. Granted, the latter figure ranked fifth in the league but from the defense’s perspective, applying pressure at least shifts the odds of an incompletion in the team’s favor. Any slight advantage helps when facing such a prolific quarterback.
Part of the reason Mahomes has been so successful is he has a big arm and can push the ball down the field. He finished the year ranked fourth overall in yards per pass attempt with 8.3, and his 8.8 yards per attempt last season was good enough for second-best. As impressive as these statistics are, there is a trend that brings this number back down to earth.
In 2019, when the gunslinger was pressured at least 10 times, his YPA dipped below his average in three out of four contests with the lone exception coming in week two against Oakland. It’s worth noting that the Raiders posted the fourth-lowest Pro Football Focus coverage grade this season. Removing the Silver and Black from the equation, Mahomes’ YPA dropped to 7.6 when significantly pressured.
Now that it’s been established that the quarterback isn’t the same under duress, the question arises, how does the 49ers’ pass rush stack up against the Chiefs’ offensive line?
At this point in the year, everyone who has paid attention to the NFL knows how dominant San Francisco’s pass rush can be. The team is one of, if not the best at getting to the quarterback in the league. However, this Sunday might be the unit’s biggest test yet.
Kansas City’s offensive line has been excellent at keeping Mahomes upright all season. Pro Football Focus grades them as a top-five pass-blocking unit and Football Outsiders ranks the organization’s big uglies as the fourth-best in the league. Part of the reason the Chiefs linemen have been so successful is opponents can’t really blitz them because of the team’s weapons on the outside.
With speed demons like Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins, manufacturing pressure is a big risk for defensive coordinators. Those track stars can outrun just about anyone and defensive backs need all the help they can get to keep the wideouts from making a big play. For Saleh, this means he’ll have to rely on his fantastic front four to win one-on-one matchups in order to get pressure.
While limiting the number of blitzes will make the 49ers’ defense rather vanilla from a pass rush standpoint, it will open up the playbook in regards to coverage which is exactly what the team needs.
San Francisco is primarily a zone coverage team but they will need to mix it up against Kansas City. If the Red and Gold run too much man-to-man, the speed demons mentioned above will run wild. On the other hand, if the team runs zone coverage too frequently a smart pass-catcher like Travis Kelce find the holes and pick the defense apart all day.
Back in week five, the Colts were able to catch the Chiefs and Mahomes off guard by mixing up their coverages. The result? Indianapolis walked away with a win and held Kansas City to 13 points, the latter’s lowest-scoring performance of the season.
Granted, Hill missed that game with an injury but the Chiefs’ offense averaged 31 points per game in the three other contests without him, so Indy had to be doing something right. Breaking tendencies and giving Mahomes one look when he’s expecting another might be the 49ers’ best bet at slowing the quarterback down.
Saleh’s best chance at cracking the NFL’s most challenging code is to let his defensive line take care of business and keep the gunslinger guessing when it comes to the coverage scheme.
Otherwise, option two might be to just pray.
