49ers @ Seahawks Odds and Predictions

The 49ers and Seahawks don’t have a lot in common. However, in this particular matchup, they do. What similarity do they share you ask?

Author:
Nicolas Newman
Oct 31, 2020 7:19 PM EDT

Spread: 49ers + 3 / Seahawks -3

Over/Under: 53

Analysis: The 49ers and Seahawks don’t have a lot in common. However, in this particular matchup, they do. What similarity do they share you ask? Injury. Going into this game, both teams are decimated by the injury bug.

Most notably, the 49ers will be without starters Deebo Samuel and Jaquiski Tartt. The team could also be without Kwon Alexander and Jimmie Ward. Meanwhile for the Seahawks, they will be without corner Shaquill Griffin. There is also the strong possibility that safety Jamal Adams, and running backs Carlos Hyde, Chris Carson, and Travis Homer all miss this game as well.

Injuries aside, the 49ers are the more balanced team in this game. They feature a top 10 offense (ranked 8th) and defense (ranked 8th) in terms of Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), while the Seahawks rank 2nd in offense, but 28th in defense.

Defensively for the 49ers, it’ll be tough to slow down the Seahawks’ high-octane offense. Through six games, Russell Wilson is averaging 263 passing yards and nearly three touchdowns per game. Last season against the 49ers, Wilson threw for 232 yards off 34 attempts in the first matchup, and threw for 233 yards off 40 attempts in the final matchup. In those two games, Wilson threw a total of 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. If the 49ers hold Wilson to those types of numbers, there is no doubt they will win this game.

Spread Prediction: 49ers cover the +3, and win the game (Moneyline Value: +125)

Analysis: The way Kyle Shanahan has called games the past two weeks is exactly how the game needs to be called against the Seahawks. Run the football, and throw the ball to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk in space. There is absolutely no reason to go away from that identity.

It may be tempting to throw the ball downfield against the Seahawks mediocre secondary, but that strategy does not lead to maximizing the team’s chances of winning. With the exception of the Cardinals game, very rarely do the Seahawks and Wilson lose shootouts.

It’s difficult to control the tempo in the midst of a shootout, and it’s just not the 49ers’ style of football. Their best bet is to control the clock and the game in general, just like they’ve done the past two weeks.

So far this season, the 49ers are 4-3 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 4-2 against it. Last year, the road opponent in each matchup both won the game and covered the spread.

Week 10: Monday, November 11th

Favorite: 49ers - 6.5
Over/Under: 47
Final Score: Seahawks 27 - 49ers 24 (over)

Week 17: Sunday, December

Favorite: 49ers -3.5
Over/Under: 48
Final Score: 49ers 26 - Seahawks 21 (push)

I expect the 49ers to continue last year’s trend, and beat the Seahawks on the road.

Over/Under Prediction: Under

Last year, neither game went under the set total. I expect that to change, as I see this game going under. The 49ers’ defense has been playing extremely well the last couple of weeks, and generally they do a good job of slowing down Wilson.

The 49ers will be able to score their fair share of points in this one, and the Seahawks will manage to keep the game close. I have this game going just under 53, by ending in a point total of 52.

Final score prediction: 49ers 28 - Seahawks 24

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