AFC Championship: Can Patrick Mahomes Lose?
Since he became Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship every year. Six straight seasons. That consistent success builds an aura of inevitability.
When Mahomes faces a top-five defense he’s 5-0, completing 66% of his passes for 320 yards per game with a rating of 95.0 and posting 27.8 points per game.
Mahomes can lose, but at the top of his game in the playoffs, only Tom Brady has beaten him in regulation. We’ll see if presumptive league MVP Lamar Jackson can add his name to that list.
ODDS
Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points. Draft Kings report that 52% of the bets placed are on the Chiefs, but 68% of the money put down is on Baltimore.
OH, SNAP!
The AFC Championship has become the Chiefs Invitational, featuring Mahomes as Thanos with the Infinity Stones, about to snap his fingers and declare, “I am invincible!”
What we don’t know is which Avengers movie we'll be watching Sunday.
Chiefs’ fans and a majority of fans around the league are expecting “Infinity Wars,” Mahomes snaps his fingers and the Ravens fade into nothing. Same ol'. I am expecting “End Game,” where Kyle Hamilton steals the stones and snaps back, turning Mahomes and the Chiefs to dust.
BALTIMORE IS HISTORICALLY GOOD
The Ravens have beaten teams with winning records by at least 14 points nine times in the regular season and the playoffs, an NFL record.
The teams that have at least seven of those wins in a season are all Super Bowl champions and went a collective 40-8: the ’85 Bears, the ’96 Packers, and the ’14 Patriots. It's an indicator of both balance and dominance.
The Ravens' defense is the first ever to lead the league in scoring, sacks, and takeaways in a season. Precisely what wins playoff games.
The Ravens’ defense is elite “up the spine” at defensive tackle, linebacker, and safety, where they have four first and second-team All-Pros in the middle of the field. Due to quality depth at safety and linebacker, they run base or nickel with equal success.
Kansas City ran 12 and 13 personnel with multiple tight ends on the majority of their plays last week. Over the season they've gained 4.4 yards per play against base in 12 personnel and 6.1 against nickel according to FTN Fantasy that tracks it.
Baltimore can stay in base and still succeed in pass coverage due to their back seven versatility with All-Pros Hamilton, Roquan Smith, and Patrick Queen.
Kansas City has success running with Isaiah Pacheco, but All-Pro guard Joe Thuney is not expected to play with a strained pectoral muscle, if he's out that's a huge blow to the Chiefs running game and pass protection. Thuney is the league leader in pass block win rate at 99.1%. If Thuney does play, he’ll be limited.
BY THE NUMBERS
The Ravens' DVOA numbers this year are impressive. DVOA is how well you play relative to the league average. Take every play by down and distance, compare it to the average, and then combine all that into a single percentage. Higher is better on offense, lower is better on defense.
Baltimore’s defense leads the league in DVOA at -23.3%, which ranks 12th in NFL history.
This season the Ravens are first in DVOA in overall defense and against the pass, 7th against the run. The Chiefs defense is 7th overall, 5th in passing, and 27th against the run. Baltimore’s offense is first in rushing with Jackson and an excellent offensive line.
On defense, if Kansas City chooses to stack to stop the run, Jackson is the league’s best at intermediate passes outside the numbers.
On offense, if Kansas City has success targeting Travis Kelce the Ravens can limit him with Hamilton. As the league leader in sacks, Baltimore will also look to attack Thuney or his replacement.
THE TWO CHANCES FOR KC
The first is Mahomes, well on his way to becoming the best quarterback in history. The second is to follow the Rams' blueprint when they hung 31 on this Ravens defense. Kyren Williams had 25 carries for 114 yards, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua had big days, and Matthew Stafford threw dots.
Can Pacheco reach that impact with a limited or out Joe Thuney?
Kansas City’s shatter-point tactic on defense has been to move Chris Jones outside on critical downs. But Baltimore gets left tackle Ronnie Stanley back healthy for this game. And potentially All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews for 3rd down and the red zone. Andrews has participated in practice over the last two weeks.
PREDICTION (Playoff record 9-1)
Baltimore will run on the Chiefs as Jackson can pick his spots in the passing game and create chunk plays on the ground and in the air. Run success on the early downs will limit Kansas City's opportunities to bring pressure on 3rd and long. The Ravens will need to be adept in blitz recognition as the Chiefs' Trent McDuffie is an effective threat.
The Ravens' defense is versatile and well-coached, they'll adjust on the fly as needed. This defense held C.J. Stroud to 12 points over eight quarters.
Mahomes will be crowned the best soon, but he'll have to wait until next year to possibly add some hardware. This Ravens defense is different from past years with Mike Macdonald's positionless football approach and his defense being one of the league's best at masking intent with simulated pressure and disguised coverages.
Folks are so focused on the quarterbacks they’re missing that the Baltimore defense wins this game.
Ravens 30 Chiefs 17
