Why Expanded NFL Playoffs Hurts 49ers Super Bowl Chances
With the new CBA officially ratified, the NFL owners were able to push things into motion. On March 31, the owners voted via teleconference call to expand the playoffs by one team per conference.
Instead of just four Wild Card games for the weekend, there will now be six with the additional teams. That means that the No. 2 seed will no longer be allotted a first-round bye - forcing them to face the No. 7 seed on Wild Card weekend. This playoff format will go into effect for the upcoming 2020 season.
Unfortunately for the San Francisco 49ers, this new playoff format does not bode well for them. In fact, expanding the playoffs hurts the 49ers chances of returning to the Super Bowl.
That is because of the removal of a first-round bye for the second-seed. Having a bye in the playoffs is such a critical factor that catapults a team into the Super Bowl. It cannot be overstated how crucial it was for the Niners to clinch the top-seed last season to give them the bye. Let's not forget how close they were to missing out on it had it not been for linebacker Dre Greenlaw's heroic stop at the goal-line.
Had Greenlaw whiffed on his hit, the path to the Super Bowl becomes vastly difficult. Quite frankly, the Niners would not have made the Super Bowl if they were a Wild Card team. Their last five games of the season were intense matches that took it's toll on the team. It's why that first-round bye was so significant. They were able to get desperately needed rest, which extremely benefited Emmanuel Sanders who hadn't had a week off at that point.
It also allows the coaching staff to study film and create their strategy for a longer period of time. That is a huge reason why they looked so great against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional playoff game. Having a first-round bye exponentially increases a team's chances at making the Super Bowl. The last time a team went to the Super Bowl without a bye was the New York Giants in 2011.
Now that there is only one chance at a bye, it makes that top-seed increasingly coveted.
The odds of achieving that in such a stacked conference is going to be extremely difficult for the San Francisco 49ers. Their division was already tough to deal with, but now there will be a greater emphasis on the entire conference. If the No. 2 seed was still allowed a bye, then the 49ers path to returning to the Super Bowl would've remained in good standing. It wouldn't be as pressing for them to clinch the No. 1 seed, so long as they were able to get the bye.
With this new playoff format, it hurts them because they only get one shot at a bye. The Saints, Packers, Seahawks, Vikings and maybe now the Buccaneers are hindrances. Now I am not saying there is no chance for the 49ers to get to the Super Bowl if they do not clinch the bye. The new format is going to start a chain reaction of teams making it without a bye just out of default.
But for them to get there without a bye is going to be a strenuous journey. The margin for error now becomes razor thin. If I were to guess right now pre-draft what the magic number is to clinch the top-seed, it would be 13. And I wouldn't even be shocked if a team needs 14 wins to clinch it. The NFC is tough as nails, like an uphill climb on a snowy terrain. For the 49ers to return to the Super Bowl, they must except the likely reality of not having the crucial first-round bye.
