How the 49ers Got Worse this Offseason
Don’t take this the wrong way.
The 49ers still have an excellent roster, and I predict they’ll win 12 games in 2020, but they got worse this offseason. Let’s be honest.
Perhaps they couldn’t avoid getting worse. They didn’t leave themselves enough salary-cap space to keep Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner AND Emmanuel Sanders -- two of them had to go. So, good bye, Buckner and Sanders.
Tough to lose excellent players and still improve the roster.
The 49ers made some hard choices this offseason, and maybe they made the right ones. But here are five ways they weakened themselves for 2020.
1. The 49ers traded running back Matt Breida.
Traded him to the Dolphins for a fifth-round pick, and used it to take offensive linemen Colton McKivitz. McKivitiz might develop into a starting guard a few seasons from now, but probably won’t play much as a rookie.
As opposed to Breida, who should have a big role for the Dolphins.
Breida always bailed out the 49ers when they had injured running backs. He was Kyle Shanahan’s safety net. In 2018, the year Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL, Breida started 13 games and averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
Breida is good. Certainly a better running back than the 49ers’ starter, Tevin Coleman. Breida’s absence only will create more playing time for Coleman, which is bad news for the 49ers offense.
And now, if Raheem Mostert gets injured and misses time, the 49ers have problems, because they traded their safety net.
2. The 49ers replaced two of five starters on the offensive line.
They released Mike Person, and Joe Staley retired.
Person’s job at right guard will either go to his backup, Daniel Brunskill, or veteran Tom Compton, who has started just 35 games in eight seasons. The 49ers didn’t necessarily upgrade this position.
They traded for left tackle Trent Williams, the best left tackle in the NFL. He’s an upgrade over Staley. But Williams hasn’t played for a year and a half. He might be rusty. And he’ll have to learn to play with new offensive linemen.
Forty percent of the 49ers’ starting offensive line changed this offseason. The new configuration will need time and practice together to build continuity. But they won’t have OTAs or minicamp, and they may have no more than three weeks for training camp.
3. The 49ers replaced Sanders with a rookie.
The rookie is Brandon Aiyuk, and he might have more talent than Sanders.
Before Aiyuk can show his talent, though, he’ll have to memorize Kyle Shanahan’s dense playbook. Not an easy task for any wide receiver, let alone a rookie. Shanahan’s plays can contain as many as 25 words.
Rookie wide receivers tend to spend more time thinking than playing on the 49ers. Both Dante Pettis and Deebo Samuel struggled during the first half of their rookie seasons, then played better during the second half when they didn’t think so much.
Sanders performed well immediately after the 49ers traded for him, because he came from the Broncos, whose offensive coordinator in 2019, Rich Scangarello, came from the 49ers and used their offensive terminology. Sanders had a head start.
Aiyuk comes from Arizona State, which did NOT use Shanahan’s terminology. Meaning he could start slow next season.
4. The 49ers’ run defense should take a hit without Buckner.
Last season with Buckner, the 49ers defense gave up 4.5 yards per carry -- 10th most in the NFL.
How many yards per carry will the 49ers give up without Buckner next season?
Buckner was the leader of the defensive line and its hardest worker. The 49ers replaced him with rookie Javon Kinlaw, a pass-rush specialist. Scouts question his run defense. Opposing teams will test him frequently next season and, if Kinlaw can’t hold his ground, the 49ers run defense will suffer.
5. Buckner’s absence will hurt the pass rush and, in turn, the pass coverage.
Kinlaw is a good pass rusher, but not as good as Buckner.
Buckner had 28.5 sacks in four seasons with the 49ers. Kinlaw had 10 sacks in three seasons at South Carolina. No comparison. The 49ers might record only 40 sacks next season instead of 48, their total from 2019.
And the coverage might regress as well. Last season, the defensive backs didn’t have to cover for long, because the pass rush terrified quarterbacks and forced them to throw quickly. Next season, quarterbacks could have more time to expose the weaknesses in the 49ers’ secondary.
Buckner’s loss will hurt the entire defense.
But it’s still a good defense. And it’s younger than last season. Maybe the 49ers set themselves up for the future. Maybe they needed to take one step back before they could take two steps forward.
