How the 49ers Offense will Evolve in 2020
Though nature grants vast periods of time for the work of natural selection, she does not grant an indefinite period; for as all organic beings are striving to seize on each place in the economy of nature, if any one species does not become modified and improved in a corresponding degree with its competitors, it will soon be exterminated. P. 79
Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species.
In its purest form, Kyle Shanahan’s offense is extinct.
Shanahan doesn’t use it anymore. He has evolved past the basic structure of the system he inherited from his father, Mike Shanahan.
The basic structure was a run-first attack that features zone blocking -- picture five offensive linemen running in the same direction, like a conga line. The scheme was simple, pared down, and it had a philosophy: Use the same few run plays over and over and master them.
This scheme worked for Mike Shanahan -- he won two Super Bowls as head coach of the Broncos. It worked for Kyle Shanahan when he was an offensive coordinator in Houston, Washington and Atlanta. And it worked for Sean McVay his first two seasons as the Rams head coach.
In 2018, McVay’s version of the Shanahan’s basic zone-blocking scheme propelled the Rams to the Super Bowl. They rushed for 2,231 that season -- third most in the NFL. Didn’t matter who played running back -- Todd Gurley or C.J. Anderson -- opponents couldn’t stop the Rams’ running game. Until the Super Bowl, when Patriots head coach Bill Belichick showed the entire league how to shut it down.
Defenses always catch up eventually. They evolve, too.
The league studied what Belichick did to the Rams, and essentially shut down the zone-blocking scheme in 2019. It didn’t work for any team that featured it. Ask the Rams. Their running game ranked 26th, and they missed the playoffs. McVay couldn’t evolve, or didn’t see the need to. Perhaps he’s not a Darwinist. Now the Rams are the Dodo birds of the NFL.
Meanwhile, Shanahan stayed one step ahead of his competitors.
Maybe Shanahan saw what Belichick did to the Rams in the Super Bowl and knew it was time to adapt. Or maybe Shanahan evolved simply to suit his personnel. That’s what good coaches do.
His quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, was coming off a torn ACL and hadn’t played in a year. And his wide receivers weren’t helping him. During training camp, the starting receivers were Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin, and both struggled big time. The 49ers eventually benched them.
Shanahan must have known he needed to lean on his running game more than ever. And he couldn’t call inside zone and outside zone repeatedly unless he wanted to suffer the Rams’ fate. Shanahan needed more volume in his scheme.
So he and his run-game coordinator, Mike McDaniel, developed the most diverse rushing attack in the NFC. Suddenly, the 49ers used Powers, Counters, Traps, Whams, Sweeps -- all kinds of old-school runs the 49ers ran in the 1980s when Bill Walsh was the coach. Plus, the 49ers used obscure, trick runs it seemed Shanahan stole from the Naval Academy, plus his fathers’ zone-blocking runs. The playbook contained every type of run imaginable, with blockers crisscrossing in the backfield. The offense looked like an elaborate game of Three Card Monty. Call it 11 Card Monty.
It’s like the 49ers had gunpowder while the rest of the NFC merely had bows and arrows.
But because things constantly evolve -- ask Old Charlie Darwin -- that era is already over.
Defenses have spent the offseason studying Shanahan’s run game, just like they spent the previous offseason studying McVay’s. Meaning defenses will make it their business to slow down Shanahan’s cutting-edge ground attack.
How will Shanahan stay one step ahead in 2020? What is the next stage in the evolution of his offense?
Simple.
Any defense that sells out to stop the run leaves itself vulnerable to deep play-action passes. Shanahan called very few of those last season -- fewer than any other offensive coordinator -- partially because the run game worked so well. And partially because Garoppolo didn’t seem comfortable throwing deep. Didn’t rotate his hips enough or step into his long passes. Perhaps he was protecting his surgically-repaired left knee.
The knee is fine now. And this offseason, the 49ers spent a first-round pick on a wide receiver -- Brandon Aiyuk. It was the first time a Shanahan, father or son, had drafted a wide receiver in Round 1 since Mike took Ashley Lelie with the 19th pick in 2002.
Shanahan knows what to expect next season.
Opponents will crowd the line of scrimmage and dare Garoppolo to throw over the top, because the 49ers’ run game is so dangerous, and because he missed a crucial long throw in the Super Bowl.
Expect Garoppolo to practice and improve his deep throws this offseason. Expect him to connect downfield frequently with Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel during the regular season.
Expect the NFC’s best rushing attack to evolve into the league’s best play-action passing game.
Natural selection will force the change -- and the fittest always survive.
