How the 49ers Will Beat Washington
The 49ers have to win.
And they will.
They will keep their playoff hopes alive and beat the Washington Football Team, who has won its past three games. Washington is hot, its offense ranks seventh-best in the NFL since Alex Smith became the staring quarterback and its defense is even better.
But Washington also has played back-to-back road games. This will be its third consecutive game away from home.
The 49ers will wear Washington down and win. Here's how.
1. The 49ers offense will spread out the Washington defense.
The 49ers offensive line can't block the Washington defensive line. It's too good. It has top-end talent plus top-end depth -- it's like the 2019 49ers defensive line. It will destroy the 49ers offense if it plays its typical style -- quarterback under center, two running backs in the backfield, lots of handoffs, tosses and play action.
Washington will stack the box with eight and nine defenders and dare the 49ers to pass. Wouldn't you? So the 49ers will pass -- sort of. They'll put Nick Mullens in the shotgun with three and four wide receivers around him. And he'll throw tons of quick, short passes, which will neutralize Washington's pass rush.
2. Nick Mullens will throw lots of screens to his wide receivers.
And the screens will replace the running game. Mullens will get the snap in the shotgun and the immediately throw the ball to Deebo Samuel behind the line of scrimmage, and he'll run for 14 yards. And then Mullens will throw to Brandon Aiyuk behind the line of scrimmage, and he'll gain 8 yards. And then Mullens will throw to Richie James Jr. behind the line of scrimmage, and he'll gain 25 yards. Those three basically will be the 49ers' ground game.
And Washington's defensive linemen will spend the game chasing screens left and right, which will tire them out when it's time to rush the quarterback.
And when Washington overcommits to stopping the screens, Mullens will throw deep to a tight end who pretends to block for the screen before he runs downfield. Look for Ross Dwelley and Charlie Woerner each to catch long passes while they're wide open.
3. The 49ers will shut down Washington's run game.
Washington's terrific rookie running back, Antonio Gibson, is out with a toe injury. His replacement, Peyton Barber, averages 2.7 yards per carry. The other replacement, J.D. McKissic, is a good receiver out of the backfield but mostly a third-down back.
Which means Washington will be one-dimensional on offense. Alex Smith will have to pass a ton to win, not just hand off and manage the game like he usually does. And he won't dice apart the 49ers the way Josh Allen did. Smith will be his methodical, conservative self, and he'll keep the 49ers in the game.
4. Robert Saleh will have a plan to stop Terry McLaurin.
The 49ers can't cover McLaurin man to man. He's a younger, faster, better version of Stefon Diggs who torched the 49ers just this past Monday. So Saleh will have to play lots of zone coverage.
But zone won't stop McLaurin from destroying the 49ers defense, either. The 49ers will have to find a special way to minimize his impact.
Here's what they'll do.
McLaurin catches first of his passes on first down, so that's when Robert Saleh will call his typical three-deep, four-underneath zone coverage, with a twist. One of the underneath defenders will run directly at McLaurin's inside hip and take away the slant, the shallow cross, the dig, the curl -- all the in-breaking routes -- and force him to cut outside, where a cornerback will be waiting. This will force Smith to hold the ball and throw somewhere else.
And on second down, when Smith likes to throw to his tight end, Logan Thomas, the 49ers will do the same thing to him.
And if the 49ers get Washington to third and long, the 49ers will win, because Smith's QB rating is 54 on third down.
5. Brandon Aiyuk will have a long punt return.
The 49ers defense forced just one punt against the Bills, and Aiyuk returned it for 16 yards after breaking two tackles. He'll get more opportunities to return punts against Washington, and he'll return one 50 yards. And this return will be the difference in a grim, hard-fought, low-scoring game.
FINAL SCORE: 49ers 19, Washington 17
