Over or Under 26.5 touchdowns for Jimmy Garoppolo in 2020?

Jose Luis Sanchez III

The passing game of the San Francisco 49ers didn’t take off until the second half of the 2019 season. With all of the close games they were playing, they needed Jimmy Garoppolo to drop back and carry the load more often. 

Garoppolo ended up finishing the season with 27 touchdown passes, which is a solid output for his first ever season as a starter. 

But what about 2020? 

What does his production in terms of touchdown passes look like? DraftKings sportsbook has Garoppolo’s over/under for touchdowns set at 26.5. So they’re essentially seeing Garoppolo remaining the same, which is a mistake. 

That is why I have Garoppolo surpassing 26.5 touchdown passes in 2020. 

To believe that Garoppolo has already reached his ceiling after his first full season starting is insane. Critics of Garoppolo think he has peaked already just because he’s been sitting on the bench for the majority of his career. 

But the reality is he finally has a full season under his belt, which means he is more embedded in the system. He’ll also have his first offseason where he can actually look to smooth out some of his rough edges. 

Betting against Garoppolo in 2020 isn’t a wise choice. 

The only legitimate argument against Garoppolo throwing more than 26.5 touchdown passes is because of the run game. It is no secret that Kyle Shanahan wants to run the football to keep possession and allow his defense to rest. That is one detracting factor that could limit his numbers. 

With Raheem Mostert and company in the backfield, there is no way Shanahan is going to deny them their touches. It is what makes their offense so lethal because of how effective the ground game is. 

Other than that, there really isn’t a case to be made here. Surpassing 26.5 should be a lock for Garoppolo next season. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if he even touches 30. 2020 should see the 49ers relying on Garoppolo more often to lead the offense, which will result in some efficient numbers for him.

Comments (3)
No. 1-3

I take the over

Carolina Knothole
Carolina Knothole

I will be stunned Jose if Jimmy has less than 30 passing TD's. Coach loves to run, and I do too, but Little and Samuel need to focus on their redzone touches as last year's stats for the two were abominable especially when combined. They each get 2 more and that would put Jimmy there for 30 based on last year's stats. That's not a hard scenario to visualize imo.

Mitchell Alan
Mitchell Alan

Garopollo will be asked to do more in the air next year. And it looks like he will have more talent in his receiver corps to do it with.

If Garoppolo doesn't exceed 27 TD passes with this loaded roster, he may not see another season with the Niners.